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McClatchy Newspapers
Apr 15, 2012
At first glance, Sheik Najib
al-Aji's home seems an unlikely venue for revolutionary discourse.
Most of the crowd in the
businessman's luxurious villa in the Yemeni capital is made up of friends,
relatives and business partners, just as it has always been. But at a recent
gathering, it was a group of youthful activists at the center of attention,
sharing their hopes and fears about their country's future as the more familiar
faces sat enraptured.
The sumptuously decorated sitting
room couldn't be more distant than the tents of Change Square, the sprawling
anti-government sit-in where the sheik's youthful guests have spent much of the
past year. But still, the same question is on everyone's mind: Seven weeks
after the end of President Ali Abdullah Saleh's rule, what is the fate of the
movement that spurred the end to his three decades in power?
On the surface, the inauguration
in February of Yemen's new president, longtime Vice President Abdo Rabbu
Mansour Hadi, was a momentous occasion.. But while international diplomats
hailed the Western-backed deal brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council that
led to Saleh's exit and Hadi's succession, many here remain ambivalent about
Yemen's political future.
Demonstrations continue throughout
the country while activists continue their sit-ins, declaring that - despite
Saleh's exit from power - the revolution continues.
Chief among their concerns is the
fate of the powerful remnants of Saleh's regime. Fearful of threats to his
rule, the former president stacked key military and intelligence positions with
his relatives and tribal kinsmen.
Over the past year, a number of longtime
Saleh allies, most notably Gen. Ali Mohsen, stopped supporting their leader.
But the deal that secured Saleh's departure left the leadership of Yemen's
divided military intact, postponing the process of military reform until after
Hadi took office.
By reassigning several powerful
leaders, Hadi exceeded the most pessimistic predictions that he would be unable
to confront these powerful military figures. But underscoring the challenges of
military reform, Sanaa's international airport last week was closed for more
than 24 hours after Hadi replaced Air Force chief Mohammed Saleh al-Ahmar, the
former president's half-brother, because of fear that forces loyal to him would
attack civilian planes in retaliation.
Despite speculation that he would
seek exile outside of Yemen, Saleh remains in the country, and his son and
nephew retain control of key military posts, as do powerful defectors like
Mohsen.
With so many holdovers still in
control of troops, many fear that further efforts towards restructuring Yemen's
armed forces could spark a return to the factional violence that rocked Sanaa
last fall.
Military reform is widely seen as
a precursor to an inclusive national dialogue, which is supposed to lead to
constitutional reforms under the GCC deal. Yet many demonstrators remain
skeptical that a transitional process that they view as dominated by political
elites will address their hopes for a major break from the past.
Government officials have tried to
assure disaffected young people that their voices will be heard. Yemen's unity
government recently formed a committee headed by the human rights minister,
Hooria Mashhour, to work with the dissidents.
"No one will be
ignored," said Mashhour, who is one of the few government ministers with
widespread credibility among the demonstrators. "All youth from different
political and social backgrounds will be represented and their voices will be
heard with full respect and concern."
The reforms are just one of many
tasks facing the post-Saleh government. After a year of unrest and political
uncertainty, Yemen's historically weak economy remains on the brink of
collapse.
Unemployment is estimated to top
50 percent. Major cities continue to suffer from power shortages, while
government troops remain locked in fierce battles against Islamist militants
who have seized territory in the country's southern Abyan province.
Analysts say hopes for rapid
change are likely to be dashed. Barely six weeks into the post-Saleh era, Yemen
has just begun what even the most optimistic observers expect to be a
protracted period of gradual reform.
"We're just beginning a long
process," said Abdulghani al-Iryani, a Sanaa-based political analyst.
"Hadi has taken a bite. He'll need some time to digest before taking the
next step."
(Baron is a McClatchy special correspondent.)
