by: David Ignatius
From: The Australian
March 01, 2012
IN the turbulent annals of the
Arab Spring, last weekend's ceremony in Yemen was so quiet it was barely
noticed. But it marked the transfer of power from an ageing autocrat who had
ruled his country for 34 years to a new leader who's saying the right things
about reform.
This was a stage-managed change of
regime, and one that left some loose ends and unresolved questions. It was a
product of backroom dealing and regional realpolitik. But in its very lack of
visibility, the Yemen handover offered a counterpoint to the violent and
still-uncertain transitions in Egypt, Libya and Syria.
So how did the Yemen story unfold,
and what are its lessons as the US struggles to cope with the other Arab revolutions?
Every story in the Arab Spring is different, and there isn't a "Yemen
model" that can easily be replicated, but there are some interesting
approaches here, including:
- Working with regional proxies:
The transition was brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council. Yemen's wealthy
neighbours, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, massaged and bankrolled
the process, which culminated in an agreement last November that President Ali
Abdullah Saleh would go. The GCC has often been a feeble talk shop in the past,
but under Bahraini Secretary-General Abdul Latif al-Zayani, the organisation is
finding its voice. The Arab League has undergone similar transformation, from
dictators' friend to change agent.
- Fighting terrorism without
sending troops: Al-Qa'ida's potent presence in Yemen made the country an urgent
priority, and the US several years ago began Qa'ida resistance to al-Qa'ida
forces in the south. The effort was coordinated by White House counterterrorism
chief John Brennan, but it involved Centcom commanders, State Department
diplomats and CIA officers. The US often gives lip service to the
"interagency process" while the military does the work, but in Yemen
there actually was an aggressive joint strategy without "boots on the
ground."
- Playing tribal politics: As with
many Arab countries, Yemen's state structure is loosely overlaid on powerful
tribes. The US has often botched this tribal factor, but it did better in Yemen
- understanding Saleh's tribal roots as well as those of dissident military
officers. The big tribal confederations were convinced to align against
al-Qa'ida. The Yemenis are now discussing a federal system that would ease the
historical tensions between north and south.
- Finding the right front man: To
succeed Saleh, the US and its allies tapped the longtime vice president, Abed
Rabbo Mansour Hadi. An ex-military officer, he understood that the corrupt
Yemeni system needed reform. Hadi was elected president last week in a one-man
race that gave a veneer of democratic transition. He has promised to hold a
referendum within 18 months on a new constitution.
- Reforming the military: In
Yemen, as in so many other countries, the military is corrupted because
soldiers are paid through their division commanders, who skim money and
undermine morale. The US is encouraging Hadi to pay troops directly. Reform is
needed, too, in the two security services headed by Saleh's son Ahmed and his
nephew Yahya. Because the US depends on these organisations against al-Qa'ida,
it hopes to finesse change over the next several years. OK, but if it waits too
long, it will seem to be coddling the Saleh family.
- Reaching out to the opposition:
The US was caught flat-footed in Egypt and Libya because it lacked good
contacts with the opposition. US Ambassador Gerald Feierstein and his
colleagues in Sanaa have done better, meeting regularly with civil society
groups and dissidents. Protesters say they plan to remain camped in
"Change Square," even with Saleh gone, which will test the diplomats'
patience.
The challenge in Yemen is getting
closure on transition. As we've seen in Egypt, protest can become a way of life
- to the point that it threatens the gains the opposition fought to achieve.
The US wants to play its hand slowly - gradually easing Saleh's relatives from
their leadership of the security forces, and moving to a more professional
military. "This revolution has been stabbed in the back," Khaled
al-Anesi, one of the protest leaders, complained to The Washington Post's
Sudarsan Raghavan. Hopefully, Hadi will deliver enough on reform to ease this
sense of betrayal.
The very fact that Yemen is so
poor and remote is an unlikely source of leverage for the US and its allies.
Curbing corruption and spreading the wealth in this far-away country is the
best strategy for getting "buy-in" for the Arab Spring's quiet
revolution.
Washington Post Writers Group