Yemeni politicians have a brief period to prove they can deliver, warns
Nasser Arrabyee
An all-out civil war is still possible in Yemen despite the country
having a new elected president. The only thing that has prevented war so far
was a Saudi-sponsored Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Initiative supported by
the US that led to a peaceful transition of power. Any war in Yemen now will be
to the advantage of Al-Qaeda, and will certainly affect Saudi Arabia and the
US.
The GCC Initiative formed a unity government, with former president Ali
Abdallah Saleh's party having 50 per cent of the ministers of this government.
The deal gave Saleh and senior members of his regime immunity from any future
prosecution, and Saleh was allowed to continue to practise politics as the head
of his party, which is now in coalition with the opposition.
The war might erupt any time if the new elected President Abdu Rabu
Mansour Hadi fails to implement the deal which is supposed to last until
February 2014 when free and fair presidential elections are supposed to be
held.
If Saleh's party, the General People's Congress, is marginalised in any
way, this would mean failure and would lead for sure to civil war. At least
half of the 24 million population support Saleh's party which has the
overwhelming majority in parliament and 17 ministers of the 34-member cabinet.
The new elected President Hadi is still the secretary- general of this
semi-secular party.
Former president Saleh warned of any failure in implementation of the
GCC deal or any marginalisation of his party. "If the GCC Initiative is
not implemented as agreed, then we will fight to the death," Saleh told
thousands of young people from his party who marched to his house on Monday.
Saleh was clearly referring to himself and his party and supporters who will
not keep silent if marginalised. Saleh's son and nephews are still the top
leaders of the army and security forces.
The failure may happen from two things: either by marginalising Saleh's
party by firing its members from important positions of state one by one, or by
amending the GCC deal in a way that would not give Saleh's party 50 per cent in
everything and that would not give immunity to the Salehs and their henchmen.
For instance, Naji Al-Zaydi, governor of Mareb, was sacked by the new
President Hadi earlier this month, but he is still holding his position under
the protection of his tribesmen. Al-Zaydi is saying he is now preventing a
possible war between his tribesmen and the tribesmen loyal to the newly
appointed governor Sultan Al-Eradah.
"I am not refusing the presidential decree and I am not sticking to
power, but I am sure this decree will not work, and I told the new governor who
is my friend and the president himself," Al-Zaydi told Al-Ahram Weekly.
The new governor Sultan Al-Eradah is from Mareb also and his supporters
are from the Islamist party Islah. Al-Zaydi, whose supporters are from Saleh's
party, survived many assassination attempts this year and last year, and he
accused the Islamist party of having planned and implemented those attempts.
"Even if I accepted the decree, my tribesmen would not accept and
would do the same things that were done to us or worse, to those who were
behind assaults against us," Al-Zaydi said, as he pointed to tens of
gunmen sitting in the reception room of his luxurious house in the capital
Sanaa on Monday.
Saleh's party wants the new elected president to fire the rebel General
Ali Mohsen, after he sacked many military officials loyal to Saleh including
two relatives, to keep the balance between the conflicting parties. Ex- General
Mohsen supported the Islamist party Islah which was mainly behind the last
year's protests which led to elections of the new President Hadi.
Al-Qaeda is the biggest beneficiary from any chaos in Yemen. It is
recruiting and expanding to control Yemen and turn it into an Islamic state and
use it as a launch pad to strike Saudi Arabia and supposedly the US itself.
Four soldiers were killed and 10 others injured in the south of the
country in a suicide attack by Al-Qaeda. The suicide bomber, who was killed in
the operation, was driving his car bomb in the area of Tharah north of Lawdar,
before he exploded himself and his car in the military check point of the 26th
brigade in the district of Mukairas, in Al-Baidha province, killing four
soldiers and injuring 10 others including four passersby.
Earlier on Monday, Al-Qaeda vowed to implement 10 suicide bombings over
the coming days in the southern province of Abyan, where fierce battles have
been going on for two weeks now between Al-Qaeda and local tribesmen supported
by government troops.
In the area of Al-Ain, close to Lawdar in Abyan province, Al-Qaeda
performed the prayer of the dead for 10 young people, in a clear message that
these 10 people have decided to kill themselves in suicide martyrdom operations
against the troops and tribesmen of the so-called anti-Al-Qaeda popular
committees, said the sources who saw the sermons of the prayer. The future
martyrs asked for this prayer because their bodies are likely not to be found
for prayers and burials.
Meanwhile, and in a signal of defiance, the anti-Al-Qaeda popular
committees have started to distribute shrouds to their fighters, in a signal
that they are ready to die for their villages and lands and they will never
ever let the terrorists occupy their villages.
"If Al-Qaeda has 10 suicide bombers, for us, all our fighters are
ready now to die for the sake of our properties and honor, and this is why
everybody of us now has his own shroud as a part of his combat kit," said
Hussein O, a leader of the anti-Al-Qaeda popular committees.
Al Qaeda has been holding two hostages in the southern province of
Shabwah, which is beside Abyan. The first hostage is a Swiss woman who was
kidnapped from the western province of Hodeidah last month, and the second
hostage is a Saudi diplomat kidnapped from the southern city of Aden late last
month. Al-Qaeda is demanding the release of prisoners from Saudi and Yemeni
prisons in exchange.
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