Yemen heads to the polls Tuesday to choose a
replacement to President Ali Abdullah Saleh. President Obama has endorsed the
one man on the ballot, Mr. Saleh's vice president.
By Tom A. Peter / February 20, 2012
Sanaa, Yemen
Tomorrow Yemenis will go to the polls to
officially bring to a close more than three decades of President Ali Abdullah
Saleh’s rule.
The moment may be one of unprecedented change
for Yemen, but it leaves something to be desired as a beacon of democracy. In
this election, voters will enter the polling both to find a ballot with only
one candidate – Mr. Saleh’s Vice President, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi –
accompanied by a graphic of the map of Yemen and the national flag.
Among many international observers and Yemenis,
though, the uncontested election is not seen as problematic, but a necessary
step to peacefully remove Saleh and begin the transition process. Yemeni
participation in the election and the government’s ability to provide security
tomorrow will also likely serve as a bellwether of the challenges that lay
ahead for the nation, one central to the ongoing fight against Al Qaeda.
“This
election on the 21st of February isn’t the end all, be all. It’s one part of a
much longer-term process and I think that’s the context people need to look at
it with,” says Grant Kippen, chief of party for the International Foundation
for Electoral Systems. “This is a great opportunity when there’s not the
competitiveness that’s usually associated with elections to actually sit down
and work through the processes, the procedures, and then going forward when the
referendum happens in the following elections to really have solid, well-known
procedures in place.”
Saleh agreed to step down after the Gulf
Cooperation Council brokered an agreement in November. As part of the deal,
Yemenis will redraft their constitution and have a referendum to prepare for
competitive elections in two years time.
Is it really an election?
Still, even among those who supported the GCC
agreement, there is some frustration that elections are being used to hand
power to Mr. Hadi.
Hassan Zaid was among the signatories of the
agreement and supports Hadi as the new president of Yemen, but he says using an
election to grant him power risks leaving Yemenis disenchanted with the
election process.
“If they say it is a kind of rally to support
this GCC agreement, a lot of people would support this, but don’t tell people
that it’s an election,” says Mr. Hassan, secretary general for the opposition’s
Haq Party. “What’s happening now is a violation of our constitutional
legitimacy and ridiculing the election process.”
Despite his dissatisfaction, Hassan says he
will still vote and show his support for Hadi.
The US has already officially backed Hadi via
an official letter from President Barack Obama in which he wrote that he looks
forward to cooperating with Hadi. With the Al Qaeda threat still large in Yemen,
where the US conducts regular drone operations, relations with the new Yemeni
leader will be critical.
“It is a very unique kind election, but it will
begin what we hope is a process of substantial change in the society over the
next two years that will culminate in February 2014 with what we anticipate
will be a full, fair, and free democratic election,” says Gerald Feierstein, US
Ambassador to Yemen.
Many young, few jobs
A year after the unrest began in Yemen, the
biggest challenges may extend far beyond the transition currently underway.
The same issues that helped sparked unrest –
namely unemployment and economic instability – remain a problem and in many
cases the political crisis and fighting only exacerbated the issues.
The median age in Yemen is 18 and 43 percent of
the population is 14 years old or younger. Among those 24 or younger,
joblessness remains a significant problem. Several estimates put unemployment
as high as 50 percent among this demographic.
“At the
end of the day, the national dialogue, constitutional reform – those particular
issues essentially mean very little if youth don’t have jobs, education systems
are failing, health systems aren’t providing. Those sort of bread-and-butter
issues need to be addressed along with the conversations about political
processes and political issues,” says Heather Therrien, resident director of
the National Democratic Institute in Sanaa.
Additionally, Al Qaeda has managed to gain
ground in Yemen over the past year, and tensions remain high between Sanaa and
the south where a secessionist movement is strong. Southern separatists have
called for civil disobedience to disrupt voting and the threat of violence
against polling stations remain high.
Civil war is still a concern among many Yemenis
if these long-standing concerns are not addressed in a substantive manner by
the new government. However, after the ousting of Saleh, there is some optimism
that government will now be forced to take action on issues it previously
neglected.
“If we
hadn’t had this kind of challenge, the political establishment would have been
resistant to sudden demands of autonomy which would have left these grievances
festering for a much longer time. It’s an opportunity for us to build a more
equitable and viable political system,” says Abdul-Ghani Al-Iryani, president
of the Democratic Awakening Movement, also known by its Arabic acronym TAWQ.
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