February
25, 2012
Tom
Finn: The first thing I want to ask you about is the timing and content of
military reform, because I think it’s probably one of the most pressing issues.
Ambassador
Gerald M. Feierstein: Absolutely, yeah.
Finn:
Do you expect Saleh’s relatives to give up their positions in power and, if so,
when do you see it happening? Just the feelings you’re getting.
Feierstein:
Well, I think that the way we’re looking at it, and we’ve been having
discussions with the political leadership and the military leadership for quite
a while now, just trying to think through how to do this, and we do anticipate
that the U.S. is going to be a full partner with the Yemeni leadership and in
accomplishing this, we hope that we will begin the process in the next few
weeks. It is of course one of the requirements of the second phase of the
transition to do this military and security reorganization, so we’ll proceed
with that. I think that what we’re trying to do, rather than look at this as a
personality-driven issue, is really look at it as an institutional issue. How
can we develop a military and security capacity in Yemen that is capable of
carrying out key objectives, like guarding the borders, controlling territory,
hopefully working with the coalition in things like anti-piracy activities in
the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, maybe working more closely with GCC partners
in developing interoperable and integrated approaches? So within that context,
within the context of developing a clear military structure that is
hierarchical, that of course responds to civilian control, and that is
structured logically in a way that meets Yemeni needs. We think that issues of
personalities will sort out as part of the institution –
Finn:
Any idea of the time frame roughly? Are we talking weeks here or months, you
know, for this restructuring?
Feierstein:
Well, I think that the completion of the process will really be years because
it is a fairly complicated process.
Finn:
Yeah.
Feierstein:
We’ve told the Yemenis that we think if we’re going to do this, that we need to
do it right. We need to begin with a clear understanding of what the security
objectives are, what are the challenges that the Yemeni military and security organizations
confront, how do you build an organization, what are your manpower
requirements, what are your equipment requirements, and how do you do all that?
Plus, at the same time, modernizing the basic structure of the military, I
mean, how do you modernize the personnel system, how do you modernize the
payroll system? It’s an issue. So, all of those things. I hope that we have a
good plan done in the next months, and then we’ll work over a period of a year,
two years to actually implement.
Finn:
Why do you think that the Houthis have become more sectarian and do you fear an
Iranian influence? And if so, do you have any evidence of Iranian influence in
Yemen?
Feierstein:
Well, we’re concerned. I think that we do see Iran trying to increase its
presence here in ways that we think are unhelpful to Yemeni stability and
security. For the Houthis, I think that certainly, I mean, we see two trends.
There’s a more positive trend with the Houthis as well, and that is that they
have indicated their willingness to participate in the national dialogue to try
to resolve their concerns and the nature of their role in a unified Yemen
through a political engagement and dialogue. That’s a positive thing. But we’re
also concerned about conflicts between Houthis and others in the north and you
know, a fairly aggressive effort on their part to expand their territory and
their control, and so we hope that through this process of national dialogue,
they will engage politically and work in a positive way that will end this conflict.
Finn:When
you talk about fearing increasing Iranian influence, do you have any specific
examples? Are we talking about money, are we talking about influence, are we
talking about weapons? Do you have any examples of that Iranian influence?
Feierstein:
Well, I think that we are seeing increasing Iranian outreach to various actors.
We do definitely see a rise in Iranian – finance efforts on the part of Iran to
increase its influence, not only with Zaydi Shia elements but with Sunni
elements as well. We do think that we have evidence of Iranian activities that
would build up military capabilities as well. So, yeah, we’re seeing –
Finn:
Is that a recent phenomenon, I mean, something we’re seeing a sharp increase in
recent weeks?
Feierstein:
Yeah, I think that we would say that that’s relatively recent.
Finn:
Why do you think that is?
Feierstein:
They’re taking advantage of this period of political instability and loss of
government control over large parts of the country.
Finn:
Okay. I wanted to ask whether or not you’ve seen any significant changes in
U.S. counterterrorism policy in 2012 as a direct result of what you witnessed
in 2011. I mean, has the Arab Spring changed ideas of U.S. counterterrorism, or
is to going to remain the same as it was?
Feierstein:
No, I think that at least in terms of Yemen, I can’t speak for the entire
region, but in terms of Yemen, I would say that we would continue along the
lines that we have been pursuing. I think that there is a recognition that many
of the components of the GCC initiative and the various elements that we’re
working on as part of this political position would also strengthen our
counterterrorism and counter-extremism programs as well. So, addressing the
grievances of the south, and resolving the Houthi issues of the north,
improving economic growth, undertaking economic reform, the military and
security reorganization that would lead to more effective government control of
the territory, guarding the borders, all of that will also achieve successes
against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and other violent extremist groups.
Finn:
Do you foresee an increase in funding, for the amount of money you are
getting from the U.S. State Department?
Feierstein:
Well, I think that overall there is a recognition that Yemen’s needs are
great and that I would anticipate that there would be an increase [in the]
level of financial support for Yemen absolutely, not only from the United
States but from the entire international community.
Finn:
I imagine that the U.S. will be coordinating closely with Yemen and China, as
you said, you touched on the economic recovery, how important that is for all
sorts of issues, including counter-terrorism. I was wondering why the U.S. is
not using its political leverage to get Yemeni workers into the GCC countries,
there has been a lot of opposition from those countries; they are not letting
workers go there.
Feierstein:
Well, I wouldn’t say that there’s been opposition. I think that it is an issue
that is on the table. The new Yemeni government has raised it, and has
expressed their interest in it. I think that what we’ve seen from the GCC is a
willingness to consider it. They haven’t actually moved forward on it yet, but
that is something that I think they will do on a bilateral basis, and of course
the decisions of accepting guest workers and how you do that is a sovereign
decision of a GCC state. So, we don’t really see that we would have a direct
role. I think that we have a direct role in encouraging the GCC states, along
with ourselves and everybody else, to be more supportive of economic issues.
Finn:
Have you been in contact with Ali Mohsen over the last weeks and months, and
what is the impression that you are getting from him? Does he seem supportive?
Does he seem like he’s going to be stepping down?
Feierstein:
Well, is he supportive of the transition? He has certainly said not only to us
but in public and to others that he supports a transition. I think he actually
put out a statement the other day, urging Yemenis to vote in the election. So
he has been positive on that score. We have, also, certainly engaged with him
as part of a cooperation that we have with the military and security committee
in the new government as part of the GCC initiative, to encourage him to work
with the military and security committee, to reduce the tension, to remove his
forces from…
Finn:
Has he done that?
Feierstein:
Well, he has done it part way. I wouldn’t say he’s doesn’t it the full way. But
overall, I think that the security conditions in the country are improved, and
that, in part, is a result of the steps he’s taken.
Finn:
Do you anticipate the U.S. having a major role in trying to bring those two
sides together? It seems like that is a serious issue at the moment.
Feierstein:
The reintegration of the military is one of the GCC principles. That should be
happening now.
Finn:
Why is it not happening?
Feierstein:
Well, I think that there is still a high level of distrust and a lack of
confidence between the two sides that’s limiting it, and again, I think that
each side has taken positive steps to implement the main principles of the GCC
initiative. They don’t get an A, but I would think that they do get a B.
Finn:
B+?
Feierstein:
Well, B, B-. But, overall a positive change in the atmosphere and I think that
a reduced likelihood that this is going to disintegrate into some kind of armed
conflict, which was the concern six to eight months ago. So, we’ve made some
progress, but much more needs to be done. Again, as part of the military and
security reorganization, there is an understanding that the continuation of
basically three different Yemeni military structures, the regular military, the
republican guard, the first armored division, cannot be sustained. We have to
have a reintegrated and unified military with unified military leadership, and
everybody has to work through the chain of command leading up to civilian control.
Finn:
Talking to both sides, who do you feel is more onboard here? Ali Mohsen’s first
armored division, or Saleh’s relatives?
Feierstein:
I think that on both sides we’ve seen positive engagements. I wouldn’t say one
more than the other. I think that we have reason to be satisfied with the
performance both sides have made. The Republic Guard has, I think, been a
little bit more aggressive in implementing the directives of the military and
security committee, and has done a little bit more in pulling some of its
people back to its [unintelligible].
Finn:
Very last question, you’ve touched on how policies do not rely on individuals
but on institutions. Do you have some other individuals in mind that you feel
like you could work with if Saleh’s relatives were to renounce their positions?
Feierstein:
Of course we have the military leadership. General al Ashwal is the chief of
staff and of course the minister of defense, and we do have joint staff on the
Yemeni side, and we certainly anticipate working with them.
Finn:
Specifically on the counter-terrorism issue, though?
Feierstein:
Well, on counter-terrorism, I think that the institutional relationships that
we have right now are good. We would anticipate continuing to work with them.
But also, I would hope that it would become more of a whole government effort
on the Yemeni part. Not only would we continue to work with the units that
we’ve worked with, which has worked out very well, but that we’d expand and
broaden our relationships so that even within the military structure,
conventional military structures also have a role to play.
Finn:
In counter-terrorism? So, there is an opportunity to broaden the scope of
counter-terrorism?
Feierstein:
Absolutely, and to improve capability. At the end of the day, what we’d like to
see is a military and security structure that is capable of controlling
territory, and if you can control territory then you can defeat al Qaeda.
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