July 3, 2012
Instead of encouraging, coordinating and
overseeing a large and much needed aid programme for Yemen -- which in any
event would be largely financed by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States -- the
United States has over the past ten to fifteen years tended to view the country
through the narrow prism of counter-terrorism, writes Patrick Seale.
Middle East Online
Yemen, like Pakistan, is a country where
America’s counter-insurgency strategy has failed. The Obama administration has
this year greatly increased the number of drone attacks in Yemen carried out by
the CIA and by the U.S. Military’s Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC).
Some150 militants are said to have been killed as well as unnumbered others who
happened to be in the area of the strikes. It appears that any man of military
age is automatically considered a ‘terrorist’. Large numbers of villagers have
fled in terror from their homes.
The targeted killing of suspected ‘terrorists’
-- the centrepiece of current U.S. strategy -- has been at great political
cost. It has aroused fierce anti-American sentiment among the local
populations, largely because missile strikes inevitably cause the death of
innocent civilians. Far from defeating the radicals, these cruel and somewhat
indiscriminate strikes by unmanned Predator drones drive volunteer jihadis into
‘terrorist’ ranks while discrediting and de-legitimising local political
leaders who -- since they feel compelled to back U.S. policies in exchange for
financial aid -- are seen as U.S. stooges.
Pakistan has tended to receive more attention
than Yemen, because of its close links to the catastrophic war in Afghanistan,
now in its eleventh year. The United States needs the support of Pakistan --
and indeed of Iran -- if it is to manage something like an honourable
withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014. But the U.S. cannot cripple Iran with
sanctions and expect it to lend a hand in Afghanistan. In turn, U.S. relations
with Pakistan have come under great strain because of the drone attacks and a
host of other violent incidents in which the U.S. is seen as trampling on
Pakistani sovereignty -- such as the killing of Osama bin Laden in the
Pakistani city of Abbottabad in May 2011. The Pakistan Foreign Ministry has
stated that drone attacks are “in total contradiction of international law and
established norms of interstate relations.” The breakdown in U.S.-Pakistan relations,
and the corresponding support Islamabad is giving to certain militant Afghan
groups, have greatly complicated NATO’s task in Afghanistan.
Yemen is as important as Pakistan for regional
peace, not least for the threat which its instability poses to the security of
its northern neighbour, Saudi Arabia. Violent ripples from Yemen have also
spread to Somalia, where the local Islamic militants, the Shabab, are said to
have established close ties with their opposite numbers in south Arabia.
Yemen continues to be in the grip of intense
political turmoil. It has by no means recovered from its long struggle to oust
Ali Abdallah Salih, its former President, who was in power for 33 years.
Earlier this year, he was at last persuaded -- and pressured -- to step down in
favour of the former vice-president, Abd Rabbu Mansur al-Hadi.
The new President inherits a number of tasks of
extraordinary difficulty: He must re-launch the collapsed economy, set in train
a much-needed process of national reconciliation, tame the sons and nephews of
the former ruler who still occupy important commands in the army and security
services, while at the same time fight a rebellion in the north, a secessionist
movement in the south, and Ansar al-Shari‘a, a militant group aligned with
Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). This AQAP franchise, if that is what
it is, appears to have won considerable local support in and around the
southern port of Aden and its neighbouring provinces by administering Islamic
justice, helping the poor and giving the locals a taste of clean government.
The man President al-Hadi appointed to fight
Ansar al-Shari‘a, Maj. Gen. Salim Ali Qatn, was killed by a suicide bomber,
said to be a Somali, in Aden last month after he claimed to have made some
headway against the Islamic militants in Abyan province.
These many conflicts apart, Yemen is in
desperate need of economic aid. UN agencies say that famine threatens 44% of
the population. Nearly one million children are acutely malnourished. UNICEF
says that half a million of them are likely to die in the coming months if
immediate action is not taken. Water and oil are running out. The government’s
budget deficit is estimated at $2.5bn.
At this critical juncture, when President
al-Hadi urgently needs international support, a donors conference, which had
been due to be held in Riyadh at the end of June, has been displaced to New
York and postponed until late September. This is a bitter blow to the new
government. It is bound to undermine its legitimacy, increase instability, and
play into the hands of the militants.
Instead of encouraging, coordinating and
overseeing a large and much needed aid programme for Yemen -- which in any
event would be largely financed by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States -- the
United States has over the past ten to fifteen years tended to view the country
through the narrow prism of counter-terrorism. That remains the fundamental
weakness of U.S. policy towards Yemen today. The U.S. preoccupation with
terrorism is understandable but wrong-headed. It suffered a severe shock when
the USS Cole was attacked in Aden harbour on 12 October 2000. A speedboat
piloted by two members of al-Qaida exploded several hundred pounds of
explosives into the hull of the vessel, killing 17 U.S. sailors. The United
States has pursued the terrorists relentlessly ever since, but with only mixed
results.
Regrettably, the United States has failed to
ask itself why Islamic militants hate it and want to punish it. Even the
devastating attacks on the twin towers of the World Trade Centre on 11
September 2001 failed to stimulate an American national debate of sufficient
seriousness and depth into the motives for the assault. Many Americans seem to
have contented themselves with the simplistic view that their country was
‘good’ and their Islamic enemies ‘evil’.
In Yemen, the emergence of a militant Islamic
movement over twenty years ago was largely the work of the so-called ‘Afghan
Arabs’ -- that is to say of former mujahidin whom the United States had
recruited, armed and trained to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s,
but which it then callously abandoned once the Soviets withdrew. Another
grievance which has fed anti-American sentiment in Yemen is the way the United
States punished Iraq -- a country which had very close ties with Yemen -- after
the first Gulf War of 1991. Crippling sanctions were imposed on Iraq for
thirteen years, much like those now imposed on Iran. Needless to say, the
destruction of Iraq by the Anglo-American invasion of 2003 and the horrors of
the long occupation that followed have not made America many Arab friends. And
then there is that other major factor, which is forever eating away at
America’s reputation and standing: its blind support for Israel in its
continued oppression and dispossession of the Palestinians.
Far from easing these grievances, drone attacks
only make them worse. A radical policy rethink allied to a massive aid
programme might go some way to restoring American authority. But, in
Washington’s current political climate, this task would seem to be at least as
daunting as that confronting Yemen’s new President, the luckless Abd Rabbu
Mansur al-Hadi.
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