Exit of wounded Yemeni leader sets off celebration

June 5, 2011
By AHMED AL-HAJ, Associated Press
SANAA, Yemen – The departure of Yemen's battle-wounded president for treatment in Saudi Arabia set off wild street celebrations Sunday in the capital, where crowds danced, sang and slaughtered cows in hopes that this spelled a victorious end to a more than three-month campaign to push their leader from power.
Behind the festive atmosphere, many feared Ali Abdullah Saleh, a masterful political survivor who has held power for nearly 33 years, will yet return — or leave the country in ruins if he can't. Hanging in the balance was a country that even before the latest tumult was beset by deep poverty, malnutrition, tribal conflict and violence by an active al-Qaida franchise with international reach.
Saleh, who was taken overnight to a military hospital in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, underwent successful surgery on his chest to remove jagged pieces of wood that splintered from a mosque pulpit when his compound was hit by rockets on Friday, said medical officials and a Yemeni diplomat. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they did not have permission to release the information.
The stunning rocket attack, which the government first blamed on tribal fighters who in recent weeks turned against the president and later on al-Qaida, killed 11 bodyguards and seriously injured five senior officials worshipping just alongside Saleh.
While Saleh is away, Vice President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi is acting as temporary head of state, said the deputy information minister, Abdu al-Janadi. The minister said the president would return to assume his duties after his treatment, though experts on Yemeni affairs questioned whether a return is possible in the face of so much opposition.
"Saleh will come back. Saleh is in good health, and he may give up the authority one day but it has to be in a constitutional way," al-Janadi said. "Calm has returned. Coups have failed. ... We are not in Libya, and Saleh is not calling for civil war."
His sudden departure raised many questions, including whether his Saudi hosts would bless his return. The Saudis have backed Saleh and cooperated over the years in confronting al-Qaida and other threats, but they are now among those pressing him to give up power as part of a negotiated deal. Saudi Arabia has watched with concern the anti-government protests that have spread to other neighboring countries like Bahrain and is eager to contain the unrest on its doorstep.
The president's absence raised the specter of an even more violent power struggle between the armed tribesmen who have joined the opposition and loyalist military forces under the command of Saleh's son and other close relatives. Street battles between the sides have already pushed the political crisis to the brink of civil war.
In an attempt to cool the situation, the vice president offered through mediators to pull government forces back from the neighborhood of the capital where they've battled fighters loyal to Sheik Sadeq al-Ahmar, who heads Yemen's most powerful tribal confederation, the Hashid.
Al-Ahmar said in a statement he agreed to the deal, which requires his forces to leave the streets and government ministries they seized starting Monday.
In the streets of the capital, Sanaa, joyful crowds celebrated what they hoped would be Saleh's permanent exit.
Crowds danced, sang and slaughtered a few cows in what demonstrators have dubbed Change Square, the epicenter of the nationwide protest movement since mid-February calling for Saleh to step down immediately. Some uniformed soldiers joined those dancing and singing patriotic songs and were hoisted on the shoulders of the crowd. Many in the jubilant crowd waved Yemeni flags, joyfully whistling and flashing the "V" for victory signs.
"Who would have believed that this people could have removed the tyrant?" said 30-year-old teacher Moufid al-Mutairi.
Women in black veils joined demonstrators carrying banners that hailed Saleh's departure. One read: "The oppressor is gone, but the people stay."
But there were also fears that the president would attempt a comeback or try to transfer power to his son Ahmed, who heads the Republican Guard and remains in Yemen. Some worried Saleh and his allies could even try to leave the country in ruins if they feel there is no way to stay in power.
"Saleh is never true to his word," said al-Mutairi, the teacher. "If the medical reports are true that his wounds are light, then he will for sure return. Our challenge now is to remove the rest of the regime."
"If he returns, it will be a disaster."
Yemen's unrest began as a peaceful protest movement that the government at times used brutal force to try to suppress, killing at least 166 people, according to Human Rights Watch. It transformed in the past two weeks into armed conflict after the president's forces attacked the home of a key tribal leader and one-time ally who threw his support behind the uprising. The fighting turned the streets of the capital into a war zone.
Other forces aligned against Saleh at the same time. There were high-level defections within his military, and Islamist fighters took over at least one town in the south in the past two weeks.
In Taiz, Yemen's second-largest city, dozens of gunmen attacked the presidential palace on Sunday, killing four soldiers in an attempt to storm the compound, according to military officials and witnesses. They said one of the attackers was also killed in the violence. The attackers belong to a group set up recently to avenge the killing of anti-regime protesters at the hands of Saleh's security forces.
Elsewhere in the south, gunman ambushed a military convoy, killing nine soldiers, officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media.
Saleh has been under intense pressure to step down from his powerful Gulf neighbors, who control a large share of the world's oil resources, and from longtime ally Washington. They all fear Yemen could be headed toward a failed state that will become a fertile ground for al-Qaida's most active franchise to operate and launch attacks abroad.
In a display of the kind of political maneuvering that has helped keep Saleh in power through numerous perils, he agreed three times to a U.S.-backed Gulf Arab proposal for ending the crisis only to back out at the last minute.
Now, Saleh's injuries and his treatment abroad provide him with what could turn out to be a face-saving solution to exit power.
"This is exactly what needed to happen," said Christopher Boucek, a Yemen expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "He needed to leave in order to get past this political deadlock that has been cursing Yemen for the past few months."
Rick Nelson, a counterterrorism expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said there is no chance of Saleh returning to Yemen and it's unlikely anyone linked to him can maintain power and control.
"I can't see any remnant of the saleh government staying in place after this," Nelson said.
The fact that powerful members of Saleh's family have remained behind in Sanaa suggests vigorous attempts to hold power will be made.
Significantly, military officials said Hadi, the vice president, met late Saturday night in Sanaa with several members of Saleh's family, including his son and one-time heir apparent Ahmed, who commands the powerful Republican Guard. Others who attended the meeting included two of the president's nephews and two half brothers. All four head well-equipped and highly trained units that constitute the president's main power base in the military.

Yemen may become threat to UK security, says Hague

By Joe Churcher, PA
June 5, 2011
Yemen risks becoming "a much more serious threat" to UK national security, Foreign Secretary William Hague warned amid fears it could descend into chaos.
Mr Hague accepted that the troubled Middle East country risked falling to pieces as its president went abroad for medical treatment to wounds sustained in a rebel rocket attack.
And he renewed his appeal to British nationals there to flee the violence while they still had the chance - warning they should not expect a Government-led emergency evacuation.
The prospect of a violent power grab mounted after president Ali Abdullah Saleh flew to Saudi Arabia for urgent medical attention after the attack on his compound in the capital Sanaa.
He was reported to have taken his family with him and Mr Hague said it remained unclear whether he intended to return to the increasingly violent confrontations with tribal leaders.
Its history as a breeding ground for al Qaida terror attacks means the UK and allies have been particularly concerned to prevent Yemen becoming a failed state.
But Saleh has repeatedly refused to sign up to a mediated agreement tabled by neighbours in the Gulf Co-operation Council - leading to escalating violence.
Asked about the latest developments, Mr Hague told BBC1's Andrew Marr Show he was "very worried".
Successive British Governments had worked hard to achieve stability there, he pointed out, urging the president to agree the deal.
"We have not succeeeded in that but we will continue working very hard on that. It could become a much more serious threat to our own security," he went on.
In a fresh warning to Britons still in the country - believed to number a few hundred - he said they should leave immediately while commercial flights were still available.
"They should not assume that in these circumstances, we can safely conduct or would try to conduct an evacuation," he said.

In Yemen, celebrations and confusion after Saleh leaves

Fireworks lit up the sky last night after embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh left Yemen to Saudi Arabia for 'medical treatment,' but loyalist forces continue to battle tribal fighters.

By Jeb Boone, Contributor / June 5, 2011

Sanaa, Yemen

A myriad of colors lit up the sky in Yemen's capital, Sanaa, last night.

Celebratory fireworks were launched from Change Square as news broke of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s departure to Saudi Arabia for what the Yemeni Government called “medical treatment.”

Abd al-Rabo Mansur al-Hadi, former vice president, has been named acting president in Mr. Saleh’s absence.

The celebrations -- most intense among the thousands of protesters who've been living for months in tents just outside Sanaa University and in other camps around the country -- were interrupted at around 9 p.m., however, by the familiar sound of shelling.heard as artillery pounded the al-Habasa district of Sanaa where loyalist military forces and anti-government tribesmen have been battling for almost two straight weeks.

A cease-fire brokered by Saudi mediators earlier on Saturday had only held for a matter of hours. And while celebrations continued, residents and some protest leaders weren’t convinced that Saleh’s departure was the end of violence.

“This is not the end, by any stretch of the imagination,” says Jamal Nasser, spokesmen for the Coordinating Council of the Youth Revolution of Change, Yemen’s largest protest organization. “I just don’t feel like celebrations are appropriate at this point.”

Too early to celebrate?

While Saleh took most of his family with him to Saudi Arabia, his son Ahmed, commander of the Republican Guard, and his nephew Yahyha, commander of the Central Security Forces, remained behind to continue Saleh’s military campaign against the tribesmen in Sanaa.

Some frustrated activists refuse to join the celebrations.

“Our revolution was hijacked by the tribes," says Shatha al-Harazi, a young Yemeni journalist and activist. "How can we establish a civil state if tribes still wield so much power? They forced Saleh out with weapons and we failed to force him out with peace.”

What's next?

What comes next in Yemen’s power transfer, ironically, seems to be in line with a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) power transfer deal that was rejected by the former president and protesters alike.

“The first step of the GCC initiative was to name al-Hadi as acting president. The opposition is now pushing for presidential elections. It seems as though the GCC plan will be put into play after all,” says Yemeni political analyst Abdul Ghani al-Iryani. “But I’m sure of one thing – Saleh is not coming back to Yemen.”

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Economic woes

As celebrations continue across the country, more stoic citizens still worry about the state of Yemen’s economy.

“Saleh is gone, thank God,” says Hussein Mohammed al-Harazi, a resident of Sanaa’s old city. “But I still can’t find water or fuel.”

Yemen has also been beset by a foreign currency shortage, forcing up the cost of imports, especially wheat. Yemen imports 20 percent of its wheat supply in addition to a large number of basic food goods such as sugar.

The establishment of a new government may need to take place incredibly quickly is Yemen is to stave off economic collapse.

“If we don’t find a solution to these basic problems, the economy will collapse by Ramadan [in August],” says one senior western diplomat.

Saleh Hurt as Shell Lands inside Presidential Palace

Sana'a, June 3, 2011- President Ali Abdullah Saleh was slightly injured on Friday when a shell landed inside the presidential palace, but well-informed sources said he had a minor injury in his head and is OK.

"Three of his guards and the rector were killed in the attack against the mosque inside the palace, blamed on the tribe of Hashid, whose members are currently fighting the government forces in many parts of the capital.

A spokesman for Sadeq Al-Ahmer, the sheik of Hashid, denied their involvement in the attack, saying the government is taking advantage of the situation to blame any attack on us.
" We had nothing to do with this attack," said Abdul Qawi Al-Qaisi, director of Al-Ahmer's office, as government sources said that the shell was fired from the house of Hameed Al-Ahmer, a brother of Sadeq.

In response to the attack that occurred after Friday prayers, the forces have been bombing the house of Hamid and other figures of Al Al-Ahmer.

Parliament Speaker, Yahya Al-Ra'e, Prime Minister Ali Mujawar and other senior officials were wounded, but there were not details whether the injuries were serious.

President Saleh will deliver a speech to comment on the attack in coming hours.

In Taiz, locals said thousands of antigovernment protesters retook the freedom square in downtown the southern city. Several protesters were injured in clashes with the forces.

Last week, the forces broke into the square, where hundreds of thousands of people have held a month-long sit to call for the departure of the regime.

They burned tents and fired live bullets at the protesters leaving dozens killed and more than a thousand others injured.

Source: Yemen Post

Army Retakes Public Offices in Yemen Capital

Sana'a, June 2, 2011-The Yemeni army has retaken public offices from the tribal fighters loyal to Sadeq Al-Ahmer, the sheikh of Hashid, and fierce confrontations are continuing between both sides in Al-Hasaba district and nearby areas in the capital Sana'a.
On Thursday, an official at the Interior Ministry said," we retook public offices in Al-Hasaba district including the Ministries of Trade and Industry and Local Administration, the permanent committee of the ruling party and others".
" I am in my office inside the Interior Ministry and battles are taking place right now," the official said, as eyewitnesses added that the army was shelling many areas in the area.
There are also hundreds of Al-Ahmer trying to enter the capital to support their elder, but the forces are preventing them.
Russia on Thursday called for an immediate ceasefire and urged its citizens to leave Yemen due to the grave developments in several cities.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, urged Saleh to leave and respect the choice of the Yemeni people as she said that Saleh's stay will lead to true conflict.
In Taiz, fierce clashes started earlier today when the forces closed all entrances of the city and dispersed a massive demonstration.
Source: Yemen Post

Al-Qaida seizes another large city in southeast Yemen

SANAA, June 1 (Xinhua) -- Al-Qaida's regional branch in Yemen took control over another large city in Yemen's southeastern province of Shabwa on Wednesday, a week after they controlled the southern Abyan province, local officials and residents said.

"Following fierce battles with government forces, fighters of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) managed to seize the whole city of Azzan in the southeast province of Shabwa on Wednesday, announcing that the city of Azzan joins in their Islamic emirate," one local official told Xinhua.

Some tribal leaders and residents confirmed the news in phone conversations with Xinhua.

The tribal leaders said the AQAP militants were enjoying high- level activities nowadays because of the weak presence of security forces, which were pulled out to major cities to curb the four- month-long anti-government protests as well as to secure the government and foreign interests from sporadic riot acts.

Shabwa, some 458 km southeast to the capital Sanaa, is believed to be a stronghold of hundreds of al-Qaida militants, including the wanted U.S.-born Yemeni cleric Anwar al-Awlaki.

In the escalating unrest in Abyan, the gunmen of AQAP also took over Wadhiee district on Wednesday, which is the ancestral homeland of Vice President Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, another local official and residents said.

The AQAP declared Saturday to seize Zinjibar, the provincial capital city of Abyan which is located about 480 km south of Sanaa, as the capital of their newly-established Taliban-style Islamic emirate.

Meanwhile, a provincial government official in Shabwa told Xinhua that the governor of Shabwa held a meeting with tribal chieftains and dignitaries on Wednesday, during which they signed an agreement for forming armed popular committees to defend and protect the government facilities and residential neighborhoods.

Exclusive: Arcadia may have rigged Yemen exports: cable

By Brian Grow and Joshua Schneyer

ATLANTA/NEW YORK | Wed Jun 1, 2011

ATLANTA/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil trading firm Arcadia Petroleum, sued by regulators last week for allegedly manipulating U.S. oil prices, used hardball tactics in Yemen to buy the country's oil exports at below market prices, until authorities revamped their sales process to break the trading house's "long-standing monopoly", according to a confidential State Department cable.

The September 2009 cable says that an internal government shift in control over the country's valuable oil exports, meant to open up oil bidding to more international buyers, threatened Arcadia's sway over Yemen's exports.

It also put at risk an alliance between Arcadia and its "local agent" in Yemen, tribal leader Hamid al-Ahmar, the cable says. Arcadia, in an interview, denied the allegations in the cable, saying it did not employ al-Ahmar as an agent, although it did work with some of his companies in the oil trading business. The company said it always paid official market prices for Yemen's export oil.

NEW OIL BOSSES

In a bid to increase transparency, the government of Yemen in March 2009 yanked control of oil export pricing away from officials in the country's Ministry of Oil, and handed it to an oil council controlled by the son of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, including officials from several government departments.

The shift was meant to end Arcadia's buying of a large portion of Yemen's government-priced export crude at "below-market value", according to the cable, which was obtained by Wikileaks.

Oil traders in Asia who have also been involved in Yemen exports confirmed to Reuters the change in policy. Before the change, many potential buyers would not bid for Yemeni crude because they saw the market as stacked in favor or Arcadia, even though it had a nominally competitive bidding process, the traders said.

"Arcadia almost always won oil export tenders because Arcadia had an "agent" in Yemen. Other international companies such as BP and Chevron were reluctant to participate in the bidding," said an Asian crude oil trader with a major buyer.

The 2009 pricing shift was "a crackdown on corruption and some (government) officials who were in charge of oil export tenders were fired," the trader added.

Stephen Gibbons, CEO of Arcadia's Singapore office, said that al-Ahmar was not the company's agent in Yemen. "He is not our agent and wasn't actually earning anything from us. He has companies in Yemen which we have worked with," Gibbons said.

Cited in the cable, al-Ahmar bragged to an economic official from the U.S. Embassy that he earned $50,000 per month from Arcadia, but the amount was "an infinitesimally marginal part of my income." Global oil trading firms often hire a local agent to secure access to domestic supplies, or improve the odds of winning tenders.

Many of the firms staff small, local offices in countries where they do business, and rely on local agents for access to senior officials and decision-makers. A strong relationship with officials can be an important factor in getting access to coveted supplies.

OTHER SCARE TACTICS?

But the State Department cable, citing a highly-ranked government official, says al-Ahmar and Arcadia took this further and "scared away potentially more competitive bidders by threatening to kidnap their representatives."

On Wednesday, Reuters contacted the official cited in the cable, who repeated the allegation that Arcadia made kidnapping threats in Yemen. Neither the official nor the cable provided specific details of the alleged threats.

Reuters agreed not to name the official at the request of the State Department. "This kidnapping stuff is ludicrous. I completely refute that. It is the kind of thing that could come from competitors, or from the enemies of al-Ahmar," Arcadia's Gibbons said. "This is Yemeni politics. Remember that al-Ahmar is a bitter enemy of (President) Saleh."

The government is currently locked in a near civil war with rebels aligned with al-Ahmar, though at the time he was described in the cable as a powerful leader of the Hashid tribe and a businessman.

The State Department cable was signed by former Ambassador Stephen Seche and sent to six U.S. embassies, the Departments of Treasury and Commerce, and officials at the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Since the cable was sent in 2009, Arcadia, which is controlled by Norway's billionaire shipping magnate John Fredriksen, has played a diminishing role as a buyer of Yemen's oil exports. The cable says the revised bidding process attracted several other foreign bidders, including China's Unipec, Swiss-based Trafigura and British oil giant BP (BP.N).

COMPETITIVE THREAT

The increased competition challenged "the crude oil sale monopoly long held by London-based Arcadia Petroleum Limited and (Hamid al-Ahmar)," according to the cable. It was made available to Reuters by a third party.

The State Department declined to comment. The cable says that the prices Arcadia received were influenced by al-Ahmar's powerful connections as the company's agent. Arcadia denied that.

"We have had no advantage on prices. There is an open and clear bidding process. Official selling prices have applied to us and everyone else who lifts crude from Yemen," said Gibbons.

Located on the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen is a relatively small oil producer and exporter relative to its neighbors in the Middle Eastern Gulf. But oil sales are the lifeline of the economy, making up 75 percent of government financing and more than 90 percent of export earnings, according to the Department of Energy.

MONOPOLY PLAY

Al-Ahmar and Arcadia allegedly did not stand idly by. In July 2009, "Arcadia sought to wipe out its competition by buying Yemeni oil at an artificially high price designed to temporarily scare away competitors," the cable said.

Arcadia allegedly bid $1.02 per barrel above the world-market price for Brent crude, when it had previously bid 2 to 3 cents below world prices, according to the cable.

The trade generated an extra $3.4 million profit for the Yemeni government that month. The London-based company was pushed into the spotlight earlier last week when the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued it, along with two other firms owned by Fredriksen and two oil traders, in federal court in Manhattan, for allegedly manipulating the U.S. oil market in 2008.

Arcadia is among the world's largest private oil trading firms and typically markets around 800,000 barrels per day of crude and oil products worldwide. Its Yemen crude "book" has been among the company's most prominent trading positions, along with Nigeria, where Arcadia has long-term contracts.

Arcadia has continued to bid for and buy Yemen crude from the government since the change in policy in early 2009, most recently buying 3 million barrels last month.

However, Yemen has awarded most of its recent monthly export tenders to oil refiner Unipec, a unit of China's state-run oil giant Sinopec.