Thursday, April 14, 2011

Yemen protesters show unity and determination

Sana'a, Apr 14, 2011- The protesters come from all regions of Yemen and all walks of life. For two months now, they've prayed together, shared meals and debated the future of their country.

As music and political speeches blare from loudspeakers, children play in the streets and men gather to chew qat - a mildly narcotic leaf. In tents next to them young people on their laptops are posting updates on various social networks.

Sanaa's tent city is a world apart; almost every tent has its own television set, there is a wifi internet network, art exhibitions, political awareness seminars, concerts and charity campaigns.

"It's outstanding. I never thought we could be this united," says Alaa, one of the student protesters.

Everyone here seems enchanted by this sense of unity among people whose country is famous for being divided along regional and tribal lines.

Test of unity

Men and women, old and young, civil society activist and tribal leaders, northerners and southerners, secularists and Islamists are all coming together in a campaign to get rid of the man who has ruled them for three decades.

Their unity, sceptics say, could be shaky and once Ali Abdullah Saleh goes, then people of Yemen will return to their uneasy co-existence.

"I don't think so," says Alaa. "This uprising has taught us a lot about each other. We'll be a more mature society when this ends."

But the end of Yemen's revolution may still be a long way off.

President Ali Abdullah Saleh has promised to "transfer power constitutionally" and welcomed a proposal by the Gulf Cooperation Council of the Gulf Arab States, which called on him to hand over power to his deputy.

The problem, the opposition says, is that the proposal did not set a timetable and stopped short of calling on him to resign, which could technically leave him in office until 2013. The deal also offered guarantees of protection from prosecution to the president and his family.

"We totally reject this," says a youth leader, Tawakul Karman. "He has to go now and he has to answer for the crimes he and his sons have committed."

The GCC proposal could still provide a useful framework for negotiations. But the danger of it, some argue, is that it releases pressure on Mr Saleh at the time of escalating violence.

High cost

This uprising has already cost more than 100 lives. Even on a quiet day, the field hospital set up in the mosque in the middle of Sanaa's tent city is overwhelmed.

In a corner, a young man called Muhtar cringes from pain. He's had repeated convulsions ever since attending a demonstration that was broken up by tear gas.

In the hospital's makeshift emergency room, two other young men who have just been brought in twist in seizures.

As nurses pull out oxygen masks, another doctor changes a dressing on a leg of a middle-aged man, who was caught up in violence on the 18 March when snipers on roofs around the square shot dead 53 protesters.

"Look at this, we need help, we need the international community to really push Saleh to go," says Salah, a young photographer who had his arm broken in recent clashes.

Salah, like several other people the BBC has spoken to, says that he has seen security services load up injured and dead into trucks and drive them away. These stories are difficult to confirm, but accounts of eyewitnesses are consistent.

Mr Saleh is fighting for not only for his political survival, he is also fighting for the future of his family members, many of whom hold powerful positions.

His political opponents may be pushed to compromise, but young people, who started this uprising, say that they will not.

"We found our dignity in this square," says Tawakul Karman. "There is no chance that we will now let him to take it away."

A round of gunfire erupts in the distance, interrupting her.

"We don't care, they can shoot," she smiles. "We are ready to pay for our freedom"

Yemen's Opposition Rejects GCC Initiative, and Accepts Qatari Offer

By Fatik Al-Rodaini

Sana'a, Apr 14, 2011- Yemen's opposition coalition, the Joint Meeting Parties, JMP, rejected the Gulf Cooperation Council's initiative to solve Yemen's current situation between the opposition coalition and the ruling General People Congress party.

Private source said that the JMP refused the GCC's offer and accepted the Prime minster's vision in which he called on immediate ouster for the Yemen's embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

The six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council offered its own proposal Sunday to end the unrest and called on Saleh to transfer power to his deputy as part of a deal with the opposition. The deal did not, however, specify a time frame and included immunity from prosecution for Saleh and his family.

Opposition forces rejected the proposal.

Military clashes in Yemen raise possibility of civil war

Apr 13 2011

Ahmed Al-Haj Associated Press

SANAA, YEMEN—Gunmen loyal to the government attacked the forces of the Yemeni president’s chief rival early Wednesday, killing one person and raising fears that Yemen’s weeks of popular unrest could evolve into pitched battles between factions of the divided military.

State media described the attack a case of the government’s rapid response forces quelling a “provocative action” by Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, the commander of the 1st Armoured Division.

The leader of the 1st Armoured Division is responsible for any attempts that could cause security tensions,” the government statement said, raising the level of rhetoric between the two long time rivals.

Yemen’s military split on March 17, when President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s chief competitor for power, al-Ahmar, abruptly declared his solidarity with the protesters who have been demonstrating for weeks calling for the president’s ouster.

The move presented the unsettling possibility of two well-equipped militaries stationed in the capital battling it out. Until the incident early Wednesday, however, there had been no clashes.

Throughout the day, the capital was tense, with a higher then usual security presence on the streets and bystanders expressing concern the conflict could spiral out of control.

These clashes threaten the peaceful revolution. It’s dangerous. If there’s no compromise ... the table could flip over everybody,” said Abdul-Rahman al-Rashed, a professor at Dhimar University in Sanaa and a political expert.

It would be the last step of the regime. The ordinary forces won’t obey orders,” he predicted, if the president pursued a battle within the army.

Yemen has been wracked by protests since mid-February over the country’s lack of freedoms and its extreme poverty. More than 120 people have been killed since the uprising began on Feb. 11, inspired by popular revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt.

In the southern capital of Aden, security forces clashed on Wednesday with thousands of protesters who hurled rocks and burned tires, killing at least one person.

The army and anti-riot police, backed with tanks and artillery, fired live ammunition and tear gas in the port city, according to eyewitnesses. Medical officials said one person was killed and seven wounded.

Tens of thousands also demonstrated in the capital Sanaa in some of the biggest demonstrations to date for this impoverished nation that is already plagued by dwindling supplies of food, water and oil.

Until recently, U.S. officials have expressed a degree of measured support for Saleh, though that has been ebbing in the face of the overwhelming popular opposition to his continued rule across the country.

Saleh is a close U.S. ally in the fight against Al Qaeda and a local franchise of the organization has taken root in Yemen’s lawless hinterlands, plotting several unsuccessful attacks against America.

Late on Tuesday, plain clothes gunmen armed with heavy machine-guns mounted on vehicles attacked the checkpoint north of the capital controlled by al-Ahmar’s men.

Local residents said they heard the sound of explosions, gunfire and saw flames shooting into the sky. Military officials say the attackers were members of the Republic Guard and military police loyal to the president. Both residents and officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

The checkpoint guards the way to the northern province of Imran, a bastion of support for al-Ahmar and may have been an attempt to stop more anti-government demonstrators from flowing into the city.

If al-Ahmar’s forces attempt to extract revenge for the attack, Yemen’s popular uprising could turn into a Libyan-style all out war, except with two evenly matched sides armed to the teeth with modern weapons.

Saleh has offered to step down at the end of his term if an acceptable transfer of power is reached, but the opposition fears he is just stalling for time.

The six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council offered its own proposal Sunday to end the unrest and called on Saleh to transfer power to his deputy as part of a deal with the opposition. The deal did not, however, specify a time frame and included immunity from prosecution for Saleh and his family.

Opposition forces rejected the proposal.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

No blank check for al Qaeda in a post-Saleh Yemen

April 12, 2011

By James Fallon and Ayham Kamel

It's lonely at the top, at least for the embattled president of Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh. His former friends in the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council are pushing for an accelerated transition of power, while thousands of Yemenis brave ugly clashes with security forces and Saleh supporters to demand his ouster. While Saleh could still refuse to budge, the overwhelming likelihood is that in the coming weeks he will relinquish his position, leaving an even weaker central government in his wake. Unrest has sapped Sanaa's already tenuous control over the country, and further upheaval in the Yemeni capital would allow al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) to gain ground in the provinces. But Saleh isn't AQAP's only obstacle, and the group is unlikely to exert direct political influence or operate with impunity after he leaves.

While the particulars shift on a near-daily basis, Yemen's security situation is trending in one direction: down. Government forces have reportedly given up parts of Shabwa, Abyan, Marib, Sa'ada, and al Jawf provinces, with local tribes assuming de facto control. Influential regional military commanders have defected to the opposition, and while Saleh continues to advocate a transition "within the framework of the constitution," the deteriorating situation on the streets will limit his options. Even if his departure is negotiated, it could result in violence.

In the short term, any scenario is likely to include more leeway for AQAP. With Sanaa focused on political transition, and the country's military and security forces in (at least temporary) disarray, the central government will be less able to rein in the terror group. If Saleh's sons, nephews, and close associates are bumped from their positions in the security and counterterrorism forces, the United States and Saudi Arabia will lose their main point people for counterterrorism. And if Saleh's friends are allowed to stay, their credibility in key provinces will be even shakier than it was before. (Their units are already abandoning some areas in the face of local opposition.)

While all of this is good news for AQAP, the group is unlikely to have a blank check in a post-Saleh Yemen. Both the United States and Saudi Arabia have extensive intelligence and strike capacity and will use it if necessary. The United States began to shy away from unilateral strikes last year, after a provincial deputy governor was mistakenly killed in an air strike and a U.S. drone was revealed to have fired the missile (despite Saleh's claim of responsibility). Washington subsequently pared back such strikes to avoid jeopardizing its cooperation with Sana'a. But absent effective Yemeni leadership, the United States would be inclined to renew unilateral action -- however reluctantly -- if circumstances warranted it. Saudi Arabia could also intervene militarily along its shared border. Even the domestic environment could frustrate AQAP. Popular support for the group is generally low in Yemen, and tribal decisions about whether to back AQAP are based largely on local interests. There's no guarantee that those calculations would shift radically in AQAP's favor just because Saleh got the boot.

Source: Foreign Policy

EU Condemns Yemen Violence

Council conclusions on Yemen

3082nd FOREIGN AFFAIRS Council meeting Luxembourg, 12 April 2011

The Council adopted the following conclusions:

“The Council reiterates its utmost concern at the deteriorating situation in Yemen. The Council strongly condemns the new wave of violence and repression against peaceful demonstrators and deeply deplores the further loss of life. It reiterates that protests must be dealt with peacefully.

The Council calls on the Yemeni authorities to abide by their responsibility to respect and protect human rights and fundamental freedoms for all persons, including their freedom of expression, to ensure their safety and prevent further bloodshed. The Council and Member States underline that they will keep the full range of their policies towards Yemen under continuous review in the light of developments.

The European Union calls for a full and independent investigation into all recent events which have resulted in loss of life and injuries. Those responsible must be held accountable and brought to justice.

The Council repeats its call on the government of Yemen and all parties to engage immediately in constructive, comprehensive and inclusive dialogue with the opposition parties and the youth. The EU stands ready to support this process. In this regard the Council welcomes the initiative of the GCC and fully recognises the role the GCC can play as a mediator. The Council urges President Saleh to take without delay concrete steps to enable a credible and peaceful political transition in Yemen.”