Obama's escalating war in Yemen

As its government teeters, the impoverished and chaotic Gulf nation is the focus of a U.S. bombing campaign

By Justin Elliott

July 23, 2011

The Obama administration has in recent months intensified its bombing campaign in the unstable Gulf nation of Yemen, where Islamic militants have been the target of U.S. airstrikes for several years.

Just this month, a U.S. drone strike against militants in southern Yemen reportedly killed at least 50 people -- many of them civilians. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal quoted unnamed U.S. officials this week saying that the Yemen-based al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula was "placing a higher priority on attacking the U.S. and Western targets overseas."

All of this is occurring against a backdrop of civil unrest and fighting in Yemen, where the regime of President Ali Abdullah Saleh has been trying to violently suppress opposition protesters for months. For an update on the situation in Yemen and the U.S. military campaign there, I spoke to Gregory Johnsen, a respected Yemen analyst and a Ph.D. candidate in Near Eastern studies at Princeton.

There's a Wall Street Journal piece this week saying unnamed U.S. officials are worried about al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula staging attacks outside of Yemen. What's your read on how much of a threat this group is?

With regards to the Wall Street Journal story, I'm not sure how much of that is new. Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula has for quite some time been really explicit in talking about targeting both Western and Yemeni government interests within the country as well as going after regional targets -- as well as of course going after the United States, as was shown on Christmas Day 2009 and in the parcel bomb plot last year.

The situation right now is very murky. There has been a great deal of fighting in the southern province, Abyan, which has been going on throughout most of the summer. There's a group that calls itself Ansar al-Shariah, or the supports of Shariah (Islamic law), that have been fighting with the Yemeni military in the capital of the province. There have also been a number of U.S. airstrikes targeting these militants. The belief is that Ansar al-Shariah is affiliated with or linked to al-Qaida, but most of that comes from a single interview, so we don't have a lot of information to back it up. Al-Qaida itself has not put out a great deal of publication materials since the protests in Yemen really got started. So at the moment we have a lot more questions than we have answers.

Do we know how many people there actually are in this al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula group?

A couple years ago, the foreign minister of Yemen came forward with the idea that there were 300 individuals in the group. Since he said that, many in the media have picked up on that and run with it, but I think it was really just his best guess. This year, for example, the Yemeni government has announced it has killed 200 or 250 members of al-Qaida since the fighting began earlier this spring. And we see on the ground that there are still people fighting for the organization and carrying out attacks in Abyan. So we don't have a very good sense of the numbers.

My reading of the situation is that al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula has actually gotten stronger in recent years, largely because of U.S. airstrikes. The U.S. has managed to kill some key mid-level commanders, but many of these individuals have been replaced quite quickly. And as the U.S. has killed them, there has been a significant amount of what's often referred to as collateral damage. That is, innocent women and children or unaffiliated civilians who are killed in these airstrikes. That tends to not only fit into al-Qaida's argument that Yemen is a legitimate theater of jihad, but also the people that have died tend to have brothers and uncles and cousins. We're seeing more and more people becoming radicalized.

Who exactly is being killed by all this American bombing? Is it clear to anyone what's really happening?

It's not at the moment. The problem is that the town of Zanjubar, where a lot of the fighting is going on now, has many internally displaced people. We've seen some video coming out of the city but it's really hard to confirm. There aren't a lot of journalists working on the ground. And the Yemeni government has of course sort of eroded away in the face of the protests in the last couple months, so it's hard for international journalists to work on the ground. Most of what has come out is either official statements by the Yemeni government or very sketchy unverified reports that are being passed through several intermediaries.

How intense is the American military campaign?

We know that the U.S. is certainly carrying out air and drone strikes. We know that the U.S. tried to kill Anwar al-Awlaki, the Yemeni-American cleric, on May 5, and they missed. We know another individual who is on the FBI's Most Wanted list was targeted about a week ago, and they missed him as well. We're not always sure who is doing the bombing. There have been a number of instances where the Yemeni government falsely claimed to have carried out an air raid on a particular militant hideout. For instance there was a case where the militants had taken over a police station in a particular town, and the government claimed it had carried out an air raid on the station. It later turned out that it had actually been U.S. missiles that were fired. So it's become very difficult for outsiders to piece together what's going on because there is a lot of misinformation.

Earlier this month, President Saleh appeared on TV in a badly burned state from Saudi Arabia, a few weeks after a bombing at his palace. With all the protests and fighting, what's the state of the regime right now?

Essentially the military has switched. Large portions of it have defected and have joined what's broadly being called the protest movement. The other half of it -- the Republican Guard and other parts that are commanded by Saleh's relatives -- remain loyal to their commanders. This is the standoff. The government doesn't have a great deal of control over large portions of the country. It's only really in some urban areas where the Saleh government continues to carry out attacks against protesters.

Taking a step back, what we have is a very large anti-Saleh coalition made up of different interest groups within Yemen. Many of them have been opposed to one another but are currently being held together in an alliance against President Saleh. It's a very fragile, creaky alliance. There's a lot of bad blood and mistrust among the various actors. It's a very tense political stalemate while the president is out of the country. Everyone is sort of waiting around to see what happens next.

What role is the Obama administration playing besides the bombing?

The criticism that a lot of people have is that the U.S. is only looking for someone who is willing to partner with them to attack al-Qaida. Officially the U.S. has come out and said it's time for President Saleh to step down and it would like to see a very orderly political transition. But this has been difficult. There was a Gulf Cooperation Council proposal that was put forward three times during the spring. President Saleh each time said he would sign it; each time he balked at the last minute and did not sign. I think it's become clear that Saleh isn't going to step down unless he's really forced out. What we're seeing is that the U.S., as well as Saudi Arabia, either doesn't have or isn't using the proper amount of leverage with which to force President Saleh out. So now we have a situation where the country is crumbling: There are very severe problems with water shortages, with electricity, with gas shortages. The U.S. can fire as many missiles as it wants to against militants, but the situation in Yemen and the situation combating al-Qaida is not going to get any better until there's some kind of political transition. But we haven't seen the kind of creative diplomacy that would require -- either from the U.S. or from Yemen's neighbors.

Cursing The Darkness And Thirst

July 23, 2011: The tribal/al Qaeda uprising in the south has stalled as some of the southern tribes turned against al Qaeda. Part of this is anger at the disruptions to ordinary life. The increasing unrest in the south over the last few years was caused by too many people and too few jobs and too little income. This is especially acute because Saudi Arabia (and the smaller states in Arabia) are so much wealthier. But once al Qaeda went to war, the Islamic terrorists made things worse by further disrupting basic shortages (fuel, water, food and other goods). Al Qaeda is not a monolith in Yemen, but several factions sharing the same name. When these groups decided to take advantage of the growing disorder (as part of the Arab Spring movement) in the south earlier this year, groups of al Qaeda began attacking police and soldiers. Many tribesmen allied themselves with these al Qaeda members, which caused the government to lose control of many roads and towns in the south. But al Qaeda had no real plan for taking over, and tribal leadership in the south already had a lot of government power. Moreover, the members of the tribe were increasingly complaining about the electricity being cut off more frequently, and the growing difficulty in obtaining water and food. Al Qaeda is less concerned with such mundane matters, and that has led to fighting between tribesmen and al Qaeda (and their dwindling tribal allies.) All this is most visible in the southern province of Abyan, where most of the al Qaeda groups had found sanctuary over the past five years. But now, al Qaeda has to be more careful. Some tribes are setting up checkpoints to restrict al Qaeda movement, or even capture the Islamic radical gunmen. Despite this reshuffle in the south, the fuel and water shortages are still there.

The government has claimed to have killed 300 al Qaeda members so far this year. That's an indication of how small al Qaeda is in Yemen (a thousand or so members). Most of the firepower in the south is in the hands of individual tribesmen. Most people belong to tribes, and adult males tend to own a firearm of some sort. The recent offensive has caused several hundred casualties. The fighting in Yemen tends to be low-level (lots of rifle and machine-gun fire) and small scale (small groups of troops and gunmen.) But the army does have warplanes and artillery, and both are used regularly. American UAVs are now seen daily, and will occasionally fire missiles to hit terrorists that have been identified and located.

President Saleh, who has still not returned from the Saudi hospital he went to after the June 3rd rocket attack on the presidential palace that severely wounded him. Saleh is losing a growing amount of diplomatic support from major nations (especially the United States). But Saleh continues to maintain control of the government. The tribes, and many Saleh supporters, want Saleh to step down, and allow the powerful personalities and groups that dominate Yemeni society, reshuffle the people running things.

July 22, 2011: After five months, there are still large anti-government demonstrations every Friday. Nationwide, several hundred thousand people turned out today. In the capital (where many government employees owe their jobs to president Saleh), there was a pro-government demonstration. Increasingly, over the last month, the Friday demos have been about the fuel shortages. The main cause of this is the interruption of oil flow (caused by a bomb that broke a pipeline, carrying half the national production, in March). That shut down exports, and the refinery in Aden that supplies most of the nations vehicle, cooking, water pump and generator fuel. Thus there are water shortages, which has a serious impact on everyone, all the time. The oil pipeline cannot be repaired because a powerful tribal chief controls the territory around the break, and will not allow repair crews in until the government makes amends for the death of the chief's son last year. The government has threatened to send in troops to guard the repair crews. But then the army would have to devote thousands of troops to protect the pipeline from further attacks by enraged tribesmen.

July 20, 2011: The army claims to have killed al Qaeda leaders Ayedh al Shabwani and Awad Mohammed al Shabwani during a battle in Abyan province. Al Qaeda later denied that the two men were dead, but neither has come forth to confirm that.

In the southern city of Aden, a British surveyor died when his booby-trapped car exploded.

July 19, 2011: A violent clash in the capital left six dead, the first such deaths since president Saleh left for a Saudi hospital on June 3rd. This fighting was between armed civilian supporters of president Saleh, and anti-Saleh demonstrators.

July 17, 2011: Fighting in Abyan province included an effort to clear tribal and al Qaeda roadblocks that had left the main camp of the 25th mechanized brigade cut off from most supply for the last few weeks.

July 16, 2011: The army (along with tribal allies and logistical support from the United States) has begun an offensive against al Qaeda and rebellious tribesmen in the south. The towns of Mudiah and Shuqrah were quickly cleared, and heavy fighting was heard throughout towns and cities in Abyan province.

In the capital, some protestors tried to establish a rival government, in the form of a council. But this group could not obtain much widespread support, and most of the prominent individuals nominated for seats on the council, declined.

July 15, 2011: Groups of gunmen in trucks and cars drove though the southern cities of Huta and Aden, firing on soldiers and police, and then driving away (often after taking some return fire.)

The UAE (United Arab Emirates) has pledged to ship three million barrels of oil to Aden, to help relieve the fuel shortage. But while the refinery in Aden can turn this oil into fuel, there is still a problem distributing. Roads throughout the south are blocked by checkpoints set up by al Qaeda and, mostly, rebel tribesmen.

Party of political crisis linked to President's murder attempt, official says

SANA'A, July 22 (Saba) - Investigations into the Presidential Palace's Mosque attack referred to the involvement of a party of the political crisis with the attack, Deputy Information Minister said Thursday.

Abdo al-Janadi told a press conference that the party was also linked to many armed confrontations occurring in the country, adding that some people, initial investigations indicated to their connections with the attack, have been arrested.

"Investigation is still underway and the findings will be declared right away" al-Janadi said.

The attack on the Presidential Palace's Mosque attack on June 3 resulted on wounding the President Ali Abdullah Saleh and many senior state officials, who are currently hospitalizing in Saudi Arabia.

Speaking on the visit of UN Secretary-General's Political Advisor Gamal bin Omar to Yemen, al-Janadi said that the government has welcomed his visit previously and still does.

He is authorized from the Security Council to run a dialogue between the crisis related-parties to reach an agreement that maintains Yemen's security and stability.

"We are looking forward to an effective role to be played by the UN official to encourage all parties to take part in the dialogue", he said.

Regarding the clashes between the armed and security forces and al-Qaeda members in Abyan province, he said that Shoqra city has been reinstated. The military forces will take over Zinjubar and Je'ar cities soon.

Some members of an opposition party have been found among the killed members of al-Qaeda, he said.

Concerning the murder attempt of the head of the Yemeni Islah Party, al-Janadi said that a jury headed has been formed to probe into the attack as soon as possible, asserting that the findings would be stated immediately.

AQAP pledges allegiance to Zawahiri

SANAA, Yemen, July 22 (UPI) -- Yemeni group al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula announced that it swore allegiance to Osama bin Laden's successor Ayman al-Zawahiri.

Zawahiri assumed the leadership position of al-Qaida shortly after U.S. Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Laden at his compound in Pakistan in May.

In its latest publication Inspire, AQAP eulogizes bin Laden and vows to "continue to fight and lay down their lives" for al-Qaida under Zawahiri's leadership.

"We ask Allah to assist Sheik Ayman in this great task," the newsletter, AQAP's sixth, reads.

AQAP in the opening of its newsletter apologizes for delays in publication, blaming turmoil in Yemen for complications.

"The country is falling apart and our brothers are busy picking up the pieces," writes Inspire Editor Yahya Ibrahim.

Yemen is in the grips of political conflict. President Ali Abdullah Saleh, recovering in Saudi Arabia from wounds suffered during a June 3 attack, has refused to sign a deal to end his tenure.

"While the different parties (in Yemen) are bickering, the mujahedin are busy laying the foundations for the coming rule of Shariah (Islamic law)," writes Ibrahim.

Germany 'trying to convince Saleh to stand down'

(AFP) July 22, 2011

BERLIN — Germany is serving as an intermediary in a bid to convince Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to stand down amid a popular revolt against his three-decade rule, a newspaper report said Thursday.

Germany's daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported in a front-page article that Berlin had sent an envoy to appeal to Saleh to accept a proposal by the Gulf Cooperation Council and head off further bloodshed in the country.

Saleh has been hospitalised in Saudi Arabia since a bomb attack on June 3.

The report said a diplomat at the German foreign ministry, Michael Klor-Berchtold, delivered on behalf of Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle the message to Saleh "that the GCC initiative is currently the only way to prevent a possible escalation of tensions to armed conflict".

The stalled GCC initiative would see Saleh step aside 30 days after an agreement was signed in exchange for immunity from prosecution, and a presidential election to be held within 60 days.

A German foreign ministry spokesman confirmed that a "high-ranking diplomat" had conducted "political talks on behalf of" Westerwelle in Saudi Arabia and Yemen but declined to provide further details.

A German diplomatic source said Berlin was monitoring developments in Yemen with "great concern" as "political stasis presents significant risks for the country".

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Westerwelle strongly backed the GCC initiative as "the way to a peaceful and orderly transition" in Yemen.

The newspaper cited Yemeni sources as saying that Saleh was open to the initiative but that his family had dissuaded him from signing.

Klor-Berchtold was the second high-ranking diplomat to see Saleh in Riyadh after the chief counterterrorism advisor at the White House, John Brennan, visited earlier this month, the report said.

After meeting Saleh in Saudi Arabia, the German envoy travelled to Sanaa for talks with government officials and the opposition, according to the newspaper, which said the mission had been closely coordinated with Riyadh, Washington and key European allies.

Saleh has ruled Yemen since 1978 and worked closely with the United States on fighting Al-Qaeda, but cooperation has been sharply curtailed this year due to the turmoil.

Since January, protesters have been calling for Saleh to step down.

Yemeni security forces and government supporters have carried out bloody attacks on protesters, while opposition tribesmen have battled government forces in the capital Sanaa and elsewhere, and some military units have defected to the opposition.

Two Yemeni soldiers, 'Qaeda' member killed in south

(AFP) July 22, 2011

ADEN, Yemen— Two Yemeni soldiers have been killed and four others wounded in clashes with suspected Al-Qaeda militants near Zinjibar, the capital of the southern province of Abyan, a military source said Friday.

And tribal sources said armed tribesmen had killed one Al-Qaeda member and wounded another at the entrance of Mudiyah, about 80 kilometres (49 miles) east of Zinjibar.

A military source said "two soldiers were killed and four wounded in clashes centred on the entrance to Zinjibar Thursday night between the army and Al-Qaeda fighters," a toll confirmed by medical sources.

Other military sources told AFP sporadic clashes had occurred from Thursday into Friday as the army attempted to enter Zinjibar, much of which has been held by suspected Al-Qaeda-linked militants since May.

The tribal sources said the Al-Qaeda members were shot when they refused to stop at a checkpoint set up by tribesmen opposed to to the group.

Many members of Abyan tribes have had close ties to Al-Qaeda in the past, but have turned against the militant group after gunmen belonging to the "Partisans of Sharia (Islamic law)," a group suspected of links to Al-Qaeda, seized Zinjibar in May.

Fighting in the town between the militants and Yemeni security forces has displaced thousands of residents.

A military source and medics said on Thursday that Ayad al-Shabwani, a leader of Yemen-based Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and 10 soldiers had been killed during fighting in south Yemen this week.

And Deputy Information Minister Abdo al-Janadi said the United States had provided logistical support to the 25th Mechanised Brigade, which was besieged by militants in Zinjibar from late May.

Yemeni Women Find Voice in Revolution

Jessica Childs
July 22, 2011
When Yemen’s beleaguered President Ali Abdullah Saleh scolded women for violating Islamic law by joining men in demonstrations on the streets of Sana’a, more than 10,000 Yemeni women flooded those streets to denounce their president.
The women had joined the pro-democracy demonstrations in February 2011, the event that catapulted Yemen onto the world stage. The nation’s constitution gave women equal rights in 1994. But not until the national uprising and their April 16 march, could their veiled voices be heard. Their chants for the president’s removal echoed throughout Change Square.
Dr. Ahlam Mothanna, a medical doctor was one of 10 women who first joined the men in Change Square.
“Females in Yemen who participated in demonstrations were exposed to violence by military forces,” Dr. Mothanna said. In response, more and more women are demanding their rights be respected, she said.
Anita Kassem, a student from Aden and a friend, Madiha Ahmed, are two young women inspired by the revolution.
“We had to get out of our houses because our sons, our husbands, our brothers, and our fathers are dying in the square,” explained Anita.
She and her friend began working for charities as volunteers. They wanted to get more involved in the protests in Sana’a, but they had to calculate the political environment of the distant capital city, to get family permission to travel and overcome the fear of persecution.
Tradition
Most women in Yemen are marginalized. Anita and Madiha said Yemen is unlike Iran and Afghanistan where the opinions of women are grounded in law, constitution, and religion. Instead, Yemen’s opinion of women is based on tradition and custom. By law, you can work, you can talk to men and you do not have to wear a burqa or a hijab. But while the law gives women these rights, husbands and parents usually forbid it.
Some women have begun to leave their homes to go to college and to become teachers, social workers, nurses, and doctors like Ahlam. That’s possible in the capital city, Sana’a, but it’s a new phenomenon for Anita and Madiha, who live in Aden.
Madiha says that before the revolution, women accepted the conservatism and traditions that bound them to the home. They accepted this subordination, she says, “because they were unsure of themselves. They lacked self-esteem, lacked self-respect, and lacked self-responsibility.”
Change
Now, women in Sana’a and Taiz have joined the revolution, carrying food and water to protestors, teaching in the streets, or standing with the men, chanting, “The people want to overthrow the regime!”
Hamza al-Shargabi, a veteran of the protests, has watched women join his colleagues on the streets of Sana’a.
“Not so many people know that Yemeni women are very strong. They have been protesting in the streets with us since the first day," al-Shargabi said. "On the political level, the humanitarian level, and the logistical level, on the ground, women have stood beside men very, very naturally.”
It’s normal now to see a woman talking to men on the streets. They say they now have the support of their families and the respect of men. Proudly, Anita boasted that she and other women “… broke the chains of traditions and conservatism.” Women have proven that they are full citizens of the country who “stood hand in hand with men,” she says.
The pro-democracy revolution does not promise more rights to the women of Yemen, but the protesters believe women who joined the protests will be more than mothers and wives; they will be recognized as citizens of Yemen.
“The revolution demands equal treatment of one another,” said Hakim AlMasmari, editor of the Yemen Post. He thinks women have achieved greater equality -- and the men, as well.
“I do believe that Yemen will see more freedom after the revolution,” AlMasmari said.

Yemen tribes say they stop militant convoy in south

ADEN, Yemen | Fri Jul 22, 2011
ADEN, Yemen (Reuters) - Tribal forces working with the Yemeni army halted on Friday a convoy of militants heading to the southern town of Zinjibar where government troops are fighting to dislodge Islamists, a tribal source said.
One militant was killed and around 10 arrested, the source said, when the tribesmen intercepted the convoy at Moudiya in Abyan province on Yemen's southern coast.
Islamists control many areas in Abyan, prompting fears in the West and neighboring Saudi Arabia that al Qaeda's Yemen wing is exploiting a security vacuum during months of anti-government protests and while President Ali Abdullah Saleh is convalescing in Riyadh after an assassination attempt.
The source said tribes had secured the road from Shabwa province to Shaqra in Abyan, a main highway leading to Zinjibar.
A local official in Zinjibar, the capital of Abyan, said clashes continued there between the army and militants. The army had retaken control of a sports stadium outside the city, he said.
Violence has gripped Yemen since February when protests erupted calling for an end to Saleh's 33-year rule.
Security sources said this week that their forces had killed two al Qaeda leaders during an offensive in Abyan as it tries to regain areas seized by the Islamist militants.
But opposition groups and security analysts were skeptical, saying the government wanted to show it has the upper hand in Abyan, which has seen daily bloodshed since militants seized the city of Jaar in March and Zinjibar in May.
Saleh's opponents accuse him of letting his forces ease their grip around areas suspected of hosting militants, in order to convince foreign governments that only he stands in the way of a militant takeover.
Saleh's tenacity has frustrated protesters who thought his time was up when he flew to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment last month following the bomb attack on his palace, leaving impoverished Yemen in political limbo.
As the stalemate goes on, clashes have broken out between the Republican Guard, commanded by Saleh's son, and armed pro-opposition tribesmen who say they are defending the protesters.
Fighting between the Republican Guard and armed men on Thursday killed two people in Arhab, which has been the scene of shelling and gun battles this week. One protester was also shot dead in the city of Taiz, an opposition figure said.
A child died on Friday when a mortar fired by government forces landed on a house in Taiz, an opposition activist in the city said.
Western powers and Saudi Arabia have tried to contain rising chaos by pressing Saleh to sign a Gulf-brokered plan to hand over power. But he has backed out of the deal three times at the very last minute and has vowed to return to Yemen.

Fighting between President Saleh's supporters and residents in Sana'a

By Fatik Al-Rodaini

Sana'a, July 21, 2011- At least two people were killed, including a woman, and tens others were wounded in fierce fighting between pro-Saleh protesters and residents in Al-Taherir district, where thousands of Saleh supporters have been camped out since the beginning of January.

Private source said that the main reason for the fighting is referred to the troubles that residents faced by the pro-Saleh protesters.

In return, some residents of the Al-Taherir district cut the streets which lead to the place of sit-in demanding Yemeni authorities to hand over the killers who killed their residents. No more details were reported.