March 25, 2012:
The new president, Abdrabu Mansur Hadi, is, as many expected, having
problems with Ali Abdullah Saleh (his predecessor). Saleh has a lot of
supporters in the government and among the army leadership. Saleh was forced
out of office last month and was supposed to leave the country. But Saleh's
corrupt allies were at risk of losing their lives, liberty and fortunes without
their savvy and ruthless leader; so Saleh stayed. The new president, Hadi, was
Saleh's deputy for 17 years and got that job for helping Saleh end the 1994
civil war. Hadi is a southerner and more low key and conciliatory than Saleh.
Despite his long association with Saleh, most Yemenis see Hadi as a potential
solution to many of Yemen's problems. But this is going to be difficult as long
as Saleh is still around and demanding protection for his allies in the
government and some tribes. This loyalty is admirable, but it threatens to
cause a full blown civil war. Many Yemenis see killing Saleh as the solution.
Killing Saleh would not destroy his faction, which has grown rich and powerful
from decades of corruption. Saleh's allies include leaders of powerful tribes
and wealthy families. People like this have their own private armies. It's all
very medieval in Yemen, and that's a big part of the problems.
Former president Saleh's relatives still control much of the security
forces. But that will only last as long as they can scrounge up enough cash to
pay the troops. Often even that is not enough. The air force, commanded by a
half-brother of Saleh, has been on strike for two months. In effect, the air
force has ceased operating since January. The main reason is the corruption of
its commander. Saleh's brother had, for years, stolen funds meant for
maintaining aircraft. Pilots were ordered to fly the unsafe aircraft, which
crashed more and more often. The usual solution to this was to keep aircraft on
the ground most of the time. But heavy use of the air force against rebels and
al Qaeda in the last year has led to more crashes and, eventually, the strike.
Food shortages, caused by growing poverty and extended violence (between
security forces and rebels), have left over five million people hungry. Foreign
aid is hard to obtain because attempts to bring in food aid have been met with
hostile groups that steal the food or extort cash to allow it to pass. This
discourages foreign donors from supplying food aid. Economic conditions in Yemen have been
declining for over a decade, which played a major role in causing the rebellion.
A year of unrest has created even more poverty and hunger, which gives more
people more to fight about. Those who have the means (mainly cash) are trying
to leave Yemen. That's not easy, as few countries welcome poor Arabs, including
wealthy Arab states.
In the south, al Qaeda has attracted a lot of recruits from unemployed
young men. There are a lot of guys in that situation, and al Qaeda's ruthless
terror tactics have a certain visceral appeal. Al Qaeda now has more men than
it has weapons, and tries to avoid direct encounters with the security forces.
Many other Yemeni men have obtained jobs with the police or army, and will kill
to stay on the payroll. Al Qaeda continues to get some cash from wealthy Gulf
Arabs (who are Islamic conservatives), but a lot of what they get in Yemen is looted
from other Yemenis.
One of the few businesses that are flourishing is people smuggling from
Africa to Saudi Arabia. Fishing boats are used to move people (mainly
Ethiopians and Somalis) to Yemen, and then overland to Saudi Arabia. The
migrants pay thousands of dollars for this, but the smuggling gangs are
increasingly trying to squeeze more money out of the families of the migrants.
In effect, the smugglers kidnap the migrants, usually at the Saudi border, and
using cell phones (which are quite abundant in Somalia and Ethiopia) demand
more money (often delivered via cell phone as well) to prevent the captive from
being killed or maimed. Yemeni police recently rescued 170 of these captive
migrants from a tribal compound along the border.
The smuggling gangs are actually groups of separate crews that
specialize. Former fishermen get people across the Gulf of Aden while other
gangs in Somalia and Ethiopia handle the recruiting. Yemeni gangs take care of
moving the migrants to the border, and then getting them across it. Gangs in
Saudi Arabia can get migrants to Europe or other oil-rich Gulf States (for a
price), where there are better paying jobs. This sort of extortion and violence
is not common, because the migrants eventually get in touch with their families
and report on what happened to them. Bad treatment means less business for the
smugglers involved.
Down in Abyan province, where al Qaeda has been putting up a major fight
for over a year, more home-made bombs are being used by the terrorists. But these
devices are often poorly designed or used, and few casualties result. The most
effective attacks involve guns, which most Yemeni men are more familiar with.
The fighting in the south has caused some 200,000 people to flee their
homes. Although nominally between the security forces and al Qaeda, much of the
firepower is supplied by tribal militias. Some of the tribes are pro-al Qaeda,
some are not. Some tribes just oppose the government. Everyone is upset down
south by increasing poverty and water shortages.
The rebellious Shia tribes up north are receiving cash and weapons from
Iran, according to Yemeni, Saudi and American officials. Several ships, loaded
with weapons, have been intercepted trying to deliver weapons to the Shia
tribes. It's believed that some shipments got through. The Shia tribes are also
receiving regular deliveries of cash, and Iran is the most likely source. Iran
denies all of this.
March 23, 2012: In the north, ten
people were killed by landmines, which the army uses to discourage movement by
hostile tribesmen. Some mines are also placed on the Saudi border. The
minefields are usually marked, but people try to carefully make their way
through them anyway. Sometimes that works.
March 22, 2012: Outside the southern town of Zinjibar, army artillery
killed 29 al Qaeda men in the last two days. This happened when terrorist
locations were identified and the big guns used to attack the targets. To the
southeast, a senior intelligence officer was kidnapped and killed by al Qaeda.
Police hunted down and attacked those responsible, killing at least two of them
and losing a policeman in the process. The al Qaeda attacks on military and
police intelligence officials are increasing, as this form of terrorism
discourages the security forces from collecting information on who belongs to
al Qaeda and where they hang out.
March 21, 2012: In central Yemen, tribesmen kidnapped three Filipino
sailors who were travelling to the port city of Mahra.
March 20, 2012: In southern Abyan province, army artillery killed five
suspected al Qaeda men.
March 19, 2012: In southern Abyan province soldiers arrested six men
suspected of belonging to al Qaeda. Further south, gunmen attacked an army
barracks and killed three soldiers.
March 18, 2012: Al Qaeda murdered an American teacher, who they accused
of trying to spread Christianity. For Islamic conservatives, trying to convert
Moslems is punishable by death. The dead man had moved to Yemen three years ago
to teach English. He was very popular with the locals and there were
demonstrations protesting his murder.
On the first anniversary of the uprisings in Yemen, it's estimated that
2,000 were killed (mostly unarmed protesters) and over 20,000 wounded.
Outside the southern town of Zinjibar, missiles hit several al Qaeda
camps, killing at least 16 men. The missiles were believed fired from ships off
the coast.
In the southern port city of Aden, a gun battle broke out between police
and al Qaeda men after an al Qaeda leader was arrested.
March 14, 2012: In eastern Yemen
tribesmen kidnapped a Swiss woman, to be used to obtain the release of other
tribesmen held by the police. At first the kidnappers were believed to be al
Qaeda. In port city of Aden, police fought al Qaeda gunmen, killing two of
them. Al Qaeda also attempted to kill the police chief of Aden with a bomb, but
failed. Elsewhere in the south, four soldiers were killed by a roadside bomb.
March 13, 2012: In the south, fighting between troops and al Qaeda left
at least ten dead.
March 11, 2012: In southern Abyan
province, missile attacks by American UAVs over the last three days have left
over 60 al Qaeda gunmen and leaders dead.
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