'It's not Saleh's decision to step down'

By Nasser Arrabyee, 04/08/2011

The Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has not the right to step down without approval from the leadership of his party,the People's General Congress, said a senior official in the party.

"The President Saleh will lose if decides to step down without referring to the PGC," said Sultan Al Barakani, the assistant secretary general of the PGC.

Al Barakani played down the six-month protests saying protesters are just blindly copying what happened in Tunisia and Egypt.

However, he expected that the current crisis would end this month of Ramadan.

"I hope this crisis will be solved during Ramadan, Yemen is not like Tunisia, at least we have parliament, we have freedoms, we free and fair elections," said Al Barakani in televised statements on Wednesday.

Earlier in the week, President Saleh said he would do his best to meet the demands of the youth for change and development.

He said dialogue between all political forces is the best and the only way for achieving aspirations of the people for better life.

"Only through dialogue we can reach a compromise that leads to achievement of aspirations of the Yemenis for change and development," Saleh said in a speech on the occasion of Ramadan, the Muslim month of fasting, which started on August1.

"Violence and conspiracies will never ever achieve the change," added Saleh who is still recovering in Saudi Arabia from injuries he sustained in a failed assassination attempt on June 3, 2011.

President Saleh's speech came only two days after the UN envoy, Jamal Bin Omar warned of a total collapse of the State if a solution through dialogue is not reached very soon for the six-month crisis.

The UN official who left Yemen early this week after 10 days of consultations with all parties, proposed that UN,EU and GCC should sponsor dialogue for power transfer and conducting presidential elections by the end of this year as latest.

The Islamist-led opposition coalition insisted , however, that President Saleh must step down and transfer power to his deputy before any dialogue.

The Saleh's ruling party insists that Saleh must continue as President until a new president is elected.

The officials say Saleh would authorize his deputy Abdu Rabu Mansor Hadi to do the UN-sponsored dialogue with the opposition and supervise the elections rather than transfer all powers to him.

The UN official Bin Omar would brief the top UN officials on the results of his consultations with the Yemenis, and would get back to Yemen next September as he said at the end of his last visit to Yemen.

Meanwhile, pro-and-anti-government protests continue everyday and almost everywhere in the country. More than 8 billion dollars is the total loss so far because of these protests according to official statistics.

The anti-protesters demand an immediate outsert of President Saleh, although they are getting more frustrated and depressed by the division of their parties.

The pro-protesters who remarkably increased after the failed assassination attempt against Saleh and his top aides, demand that Saleh should stay until the end of his current constitutional term on 20 September 2013.

Security situation

The Yemen government is now facing at least three fighting fronts because of the current political and economic crisis.

The three fronts are directly or indirectly related to the largest Islamist opposition party, Islah, that apparently wants to increase the pressure on Saleh's regime through these military fronts.

One is in the north of the capital Sanaa, where armed opposition tribesmen try to enter Sanaa, one in the south with Al Qaeda,and the third is in the central city of Taiz where armed opposition tribesmen want also to control the city.

Earlier this week, the opposition tribesmen of Arhab in the north of the capital threatened to strike the Sana’a international airport although they are not strong enough to do that.

The tribesmen said the “coming” attack on the airport would be in retaliation for the army attacks on their villages in Arhab area, about 30 km north of the airport of Sana’a.

“The barbaric aggression on our areas has reached its climax by the remnants of Saleh’s regime, they used against us all kind of weapons they have, tanks, artillery, missiles, and finally airplanes,” said the tribesmen in a statement.

“Therefore, we will strike the international airport of Sana’a with all available methods of war in retaliation for that aggression.”

One day before the threat, about 100 tribesmen and 20 soldiers were killed when airplanes hit thousands of these tribesmen of Arhab while storming a part of the Sama’a camp of the republican guards, about 30 km north of the Sana’a airport.

The armed tribesmen from areas around the camps are led by the two Islamist prominent figures from Arhab district, member of parliament, Mansor Al Hanik and cleric Abdul Majid Al Zandani, who is wanted by the UN and US as a global terrorist.

The defected general Ali Muhsen supports the tribesmen of Arhab who use artillery and missiles in their battles against the three brigades of the republican guards camps who have been based in areas of Arhab for tens of years.

Tribal sources said that Sheikh Abdul Majid Al Zandani urged over the last few weeks the tribesmen in his tribe Arhab and other areas to join the tribal fighters against the army.

A tribal mediation failed to stop the armed confrontations between the Islamist opposition and the republican guards.

A prominent tribal leader involved in the mediation said the tribesmen keep evading a truce in hope that the regime will collapse.

“The tribesmen who fight the army do not have a specific demand, every time we tell them there must be a solution or at least a truce, they ask for time for consultation and nothing happened after that,” the tribal leader, Abddul Jalil Senan who is leading the tribal mediation in Arhab told the Weekly.

“They have not refused mediation and they have not agreed on a truce, but after the attack on the camp of Samaa, it became clear they were only buying time,” Senan said.

In south where recently a lot of tribesmen turned against Al Qaeda, more than 40 tribesmen were killed in mistaken airstrikes and clashes with Al Qaeda operatives earlier this week.

The mistaken airstrikes happened after at least 15 tribesmen fighting with the troops were killed by Al Qaeda operatives in a tribal check point close to Zinjubar in the southern province of Abyan.

Al Qaeda operatives attacked the check point in Shukrah, 48 km east of Zinjubar, at Friday night july 29, after the tribesmen killed an Al Qaeda fighter and arrested another in the same check point, according to local sources.

Army troops and tribesmen are now the city of Zinjubar, which was held by Al Qaeda late last May.

Al Qaeda is still controlling about half of the city.

A military source said that guerilla war of Al Qaeda and their style of using the suicide bombings against the forces delayed army and tribesmen from totally controlling the city.

“We need some time to take some technical steps to avoid Al Qaeda suicide operations and also to weaken their abilities by blockading,” the military official said on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to talk to press.

YEMEN: Warnings of “Somalization”

SANA’A, 4 August 2011 (IRIN) - As violence in Yemen continues and the death toll mounts, observers see not only threats to the country’s emerging democracy, but also the possibility of all-out civil war.

"What is happening in Yemen is no longer a peaceful revolution. It is rather a conflict for power between [President] Saleh and the opposition alliance [JMP], which dates back to 2006, after the latter challenged the election results which gave Saleh a third mandate, claiming it was manipulated," says Mujeeb Abdurrahman a political scientist at Hodeidah University.

“We fear that violence may put an end to the emerging democratic experience Yemen has seen since 1993,” he told IRIN.

Even the UN, which sent an envoy to Yemen to assess the situation, agrees that if something is not done quickly to implement a viable transfer of power, there could be very serious consequences.

“Yemen’s political leaders have two options: either to reach an agreement accepted by all to start necessary steps for a practical transition period, or to face collapse and `Somalization’ of the country,” UN Envoy to Yemen Jamal Bin Omar said at a Sana’a press conference on 29 July.

On 30 July, at least 250 people were reportedly killed in clashes between opposition gunmen and Republican Guards in Arhab District, 20km north of Sana’a; and at least 40 others were killed in fighting in Abyan Governorate between armed militants and government troops. Dozens of others have been killed or injured in similar clashes in Taiz Governorate, 250km south of Sana’a.

The economy has lost US$13 billion over the past six months, and the number of poor people has gone up from seven to nine million (out of a population of 23 million), according to local think-tank Studies and Economic Media Centre.

More people displaced

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) puts the number of displaced people in Abyan at more than 80,000 in mid-July, and this is in addition to the 300,000 from earlier conflicts between the government and Houthi-led Shia rebels in Sa’dah and Amran governorates.

Amid rumours that Saleh could be back (from Saudi Arabia where he is ostensibly undergoing medical treatment) in the first week of August, Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar, who leads the powerful Hashid Tribal Confederation, warned on 31 July that "Saleh will no longer rule us as long as I am still alive."

The announcement is being seen by observers as an early warning of large-scale clashes between pro- and anti- government forces.

"The people are divided… the army is divided and tribal leaders are divided… Neither party can defeat the other except through ballot boxes in free and fair elections, Mohammed al-Ruaini, a leading lawyer and a former member of parliament, told IRIN in Sana’a; he also warned of the danger of civil war.

Meanwhile, Abbas al-Musawa, a still serving Yemeni diplomat in Lebanon, suggests that an early presidential vote, excluding Saleh and his relatives and "supervised by the UN, the Gulf Cooperation Council, the USA and the European Union to ensure its integrity and transparency" is the only chance the country has of overcoming the current turmoil.

JMP, backed by young protesters, insist that Saleh must quit and hand all powers to his vice-president, Abdurabu Mansour Hadi, before any talk of fresh elections.

Since his departure for Saudi Arabia in early June, Saleh has managed to cling on to power thanks in part to his son Ahmad, who commands 23 Republican Guard divisions and around 40 percent of the army.

Yemen: Terrorism Rising in a Troubled Land

08.03.11

Political turmoil is making an already poor and deeply divided Yemen prime breeding ground for terrorism. CIA officials warned the country’s al-Qaida affiliate is growing stronger despite claims the terrorist network’s demise is “within reach.”

Al-Qaida’s Yemeni affiliate declared its loyalty to Osama bin Laden’s replacement, Egyptian-born doctor Ayman al-Zawahri, last week, further confirming experts’ long-held opinion that, “Yemen is the new Afghanistan.”

The Yemeni group AQAP -- Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula -- posted a 10-minute audio message on extremist websites vowing to continue fighting against corrupt Western-backed leaders.

The news came more than two weeks after new Defense Secretary Leon Panetta declared the United States is "within reach" of "strategically defeating" al-Qaida as a terrorist threat. However, senior CIA officials also warned that its Yemen affiliate is growing fast and has become the most dangerous.

The United States estimates there are 300 members of AQAP in Yemen with links to several attempted attacks on U.S. targets. These include two bomb parcels found en route from Yemen to Chicago in 2010 and a plot to bomb a Detroit-bound plane in 2009.

Yemen is the late al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden’s ancestral home and the location of one of the group's first attacks in 1998.

Failed states make it easy to hide and train militants

Located on the Arabian Peninsula and bordered by Saudi Arabia and Oman, Yemen is a poor and divided country with three quarters of the population still living in rural areas.

Jennifer Steil, a former American editor of the Yemen Observer, wrote that Yemeni people are living exactly like their ancestors thousands of years ago: herding goats and cows, growing wheat, traveling long distances for water, living in square mud-brick homes.

Yemen is considered one of the least developed countries by the United Nations and the poorest country in the Arab world. Forty-five percent of the population lives on less than $2 a day.

The majority of these people live above Yemen’s oil and gas fields. But instead of building roads and schools, the oil and gas money is lost in corruption and kickbacks worth billions of dollars to keep people loyal to Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh and buy off tribal leaders, according to Steil.

Tribes rule the countryside

One key to al-Qaida’s influence in Yemen is support from several tribal members. Edmund J. Hull, former U.S. ambassador to Yemen, wrote that al-Qaida receives this support because the terrorism group is able to successfully exploit opportunities created by government neglect. For example, in a country where illiteracy is an issue -- only 73 percent of males and 35 percent of females can read -- al-Qaida offers Yemeni people what the government sometimes can’t: schools.

Other factors are strong family ties and the “mujahedeen fraternity” -- Yemenis with fighting experience abroad. But perhaps most important in provoking loyalty to al-Qaida, wrote Hull, are innocent casualties in the war on terror -- family, friends and neighbors killed in counterterrorism operations.

Arab Spring

As democratic uprisings spread across the Middle East, the example of the Tunisian revolution provoked mass demonstrations against President Saleh in January.

Thousands of protestors took to the streets to rally against unemployment, economic conditions and corruption, and to call for President Saleh to resign. Police cracked down on the demonstrations in Yemen’s capital city, Sanaa, and seaport cities such as Aden resulting in several causalities.

Al-Qaida saw the president’s unpopularity as an opening and took control of at least two towns and surrounding territory in the country’s south, forcing more than 100,000 people to flee the area.

Meanwhile, President Saleh, who has been a U.S. ally in the fight against al-Qaida, has turned the military’s focus from global counterterrorism to protecting the regime.

--Compiled by Rani Robelus for NewsHour Extra

Somali Official: al-Shabab Gets Weapons from Yemen

August 3rd, 2011
A Somali official says the insurgent group al-Shabab has received weapons from allies in Yemen.
The Somali consul in Yemen, Hussein Haji Ahmed, tells VOA that the Yemeni wing of al-Qaida recently sent 10 ships full of weapons to Somalia.
The consul said two of the ships were intercepted by Yemeni government forces, but that he believes the others reached parts of the Somali coast controlled by al-Shabab.
Ahmed said he received the information from intelligence sources he declined to identify.
Yemeni and international media reports also speak of al-Shabab receiving weapons from Yemen, which is separated from Somalia by the Gulf of Aden.
The insurgent group is trying to overthrow the U.N.-backed Somali transitional government and set up an Islamic state in Somalia. The group has lost ground to government and African Union troops in recent months but is expected to launch a counter-offensive during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

Nexen still in talks with Yemen over oil licence

DUBAI | Wed Aug 3, 2011
Aug 3 (Reuters) - Canadian oil company Nexen Inc is still in talks with the Yemeni government over the possible renewal of operating licences in the small oil producing country, a company spokesman said.
Under existing agreements with the Yemeni government, Nexen has the right produce oil from the Masila project until December 2011. It is negotiating a five-year extension because it still sees significant value in the mature field.
"Discussions with the government continue at this time," the spokesman told Reuters in an emailed response to questions about the company's licence renewal.
Nexen produces some 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from its two blocks in Yemen -- Masila (Block 14) and East Al Hajr (Block 51) -- and exports almost all of it from Ash Shahir terminal on the southern coast of the country, mainly to Asia.
Nexen's Yemen operations have been largely unaffected by the violence that has erupted across the poorest Arab country in months of protests demanding an end to the 33-year rule of President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
YEMEN CRISIS
Production of Yemen's high-quality, light Maarib crude -- which is mainly used to meet domestic fuel demand -- stopped for more than three months after an attack on its feed pipeline.
The pipeline was repaired and crude flow restarted in mid-July. The first shipment of Maarib crude to the Ras Isa export terminal arrived last week, shipping sources said.
A domestic fuel crisis has exacerbated Yemen's political crisis, sparking petrol station shootouts and squeezing shaky public finances by forcing it to nearly double fuel imports.
"In terms of fuel supplies, I can't say there is a shortage right now," one shipping source said, adding that the fourth shipment of Saudi-donated crude from kingdom's Yanbu port is expected to arrive this week.
"There's also a lot of gasoline, diesel imports coming in," the source said. "But the problems in distribution continue; fights in queues, violence. It is still chaos."
The army has launched an offensive against militants they suspect of ties to al Qaeda and who have seized several areas in Abyan in recent months -- including the provincial capital Zinjibar, which lies east of Bab el Mandab, a strategic shipping lane where some 3 million barrels of oil pass daily.

South Yemen tribes to rejoin army offensive against militants

By Mohammed Mukhashaf

ADEN | Wed Aug 3, 2011

(Reuters) - Yemeni tribesmen who had withdrawn from a joint army offensive against Islamist militants in the south said Wednesday they had rejoined the fight, despite losing at least 15 people in friendly fire by warplanes last week.

The leader of local tribesmen allied to the army, Mohammed al-Gaadani, warned the military another botched strike could scare off the tribes, who were seen as a critical element to the success of its campaign.

"We caution the government's forces to be careful of another strike on our fighters. Repeating that mistake will lessen the tribes' desire to help clear out the militants," he said.

Three weeks ago, Yemen's army launched a massive offensive on militants suspected of ties to al Qaeda, who have seized several towns in southern Abyan province in recent months.

Army units, backed by tribal fighters who had grown frustrated by the state's inability to drive out militants, have been struggling to retake the provincial coastal capital Zinjibar, which lies east of a major shipping lane where some 3 million barrels of oil pass daily.

Reports from tribesmen said that somewhere between 15 and 40 of their fighters were killed in an air strike, just hours after the tribal fighters had wrested a strategic point outside the city from the hands of militants.

"The tribal fighters then withdrew from the battle area for two days but they've returned now after we discussed the importance of fighting these extremist elements and clearing Zinjibar of their presence," Gaadani told Reuters by telephone.

A local official confirmed that the army's tribal allies had returned to their locations around Zinjibar as the army continued to push to retake the strategic city.

STRUGGLING TO GAIN GROUND

As the Arab world's poorest state is rocked by over six months of protests against President Ali Abdullah Saleh, Abyan province has been steeped in daily violence from rising unrest, which has forced some 90,000 residents to flee.

The United States and neighboring oil giant Saudi Arabia, both targets of foiled attacks by al Qaeda's Yemen-based wing, are wary of rising turmoil in the fractious Arabian Peninsula state, and fear it could give the group more room to operate.

The main army unity in Abyan fighting militants outside of Zinjibar, the 25th brigade, has complained of a lack of reinforcements and resources as it struggles to gain ground.

The brigade is linked to a top general, Ali Mohsen, who defected to protesters several months ago. The 25th brigade, which has refused to announce its political loyalties since the general switched sides, has been cooperating with other units that support the president in its fight with militants.

The troops have yet to recapture any major cities such as Zinjibar or Jaar, although with the help of tribes they were able to retake a makeshift military base seized two months ago.

Saleh's opponents accuse him of letting his forces ease their grip around militant strongholds in order to provoke a resurgence in fighting to stoke concerns that al Qaeda could be kept in check only if he remained at the helm.

Riyadh and Washington have sought to push for a Gulf-brokered transition plan to ease their former, if inconstant, ally against al Qaeda out of power in the hope of maintaining stability.

But Saleh, despite being badly hurt by a bomb blast in his compound in June, is clinging to power. The 69-year old leader is convalescing in Riyadh but has vowed to return to Yemen.