'Rebel' General Ali Mohsen al Ahmar, Yemen's back-up ruler after Saleh

Hamza Ali (Foreign Correspondent)

Last Updated: Mar 29, 2011

SANA'A // Yemen's president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, this week received the biggest blow yet to his hopes of staying in power when Yemen's top-ranking military commander demanded his resignation and promised to protect anti-regime protesters from assaults by security forces.

Few here deny that Major General Ali Mohsen al Ahmar has been a part of all political equations in Yemen for the past three decades. Thus, when the general refused earlier this week to give Mr Saleh the pledge of loyalty the president was seeking and changed sides, the mostly young protest movement received a potential saviour. To the public, he is an opaque figure, having succeeded for more than 15 years to stay out of the media spotlight.

Saber Ali, an expert in Saudi Yemeni affairs, said: "He is the opposite of President Saleh and his family, and it seems that al Ahmar has been busy organising his cards to take lead at a time like this." said

However, while it is difficult, if not impossible, to ascertain how a post-Saleh era under the heavy influence of Gen al Ahmar would evolve, his record contains some hints. For one thing, highly regarded political observers here such as Mr Ali believe he is Saudi Arabia's main ally in Yemen.

"General al Ahmar is the only force in Yemen that could be accepted by the Saudi regime to rule the country in a way that will not harm Saudi interests. He is Saudi's backup ruler in Yemen," he said.

People who know the general also describe him as a business tycoon with a personal fortune that exceeds President Saleh's.

Ali Almujahed, a political analyst, says: "He is involved indirectly in the biggest oil deals in the country and a percentage of the country's oil revenue goes to him."

The whiff of scandal has trailed General al Ahmar's business dealings. Even his supporters do not deny that he has been involved in some of the biggest corruption scandals in the country in recent years.

General al Ahmar is considered a "major beneficiary of diesel smuggling", according to a western diplomat in Sana'a, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Economists and analysts place the value of the diesel fuel smuggling business here at up to US$10 billion (Dh36.7bn) annually. With his considerable personal wealth, the general has created a vast patronage network, funding tribal leaders, politicians, businessmen and media outlets.

Zaid Thari, a political analyst, said: "Tens of thousands of people receive salaries from him directly, and within the presidential palace, there are tens of senior security officials who receive monthly salaries from him and listen to his commands."

General al Ahmar was born in 1945 in the village of Bait al Ahmar, near Sana'a, and raised in a conservative religious family. He received his bachelor's degree in 1974, majoring in military sciences, and did doctoral studies at the Nasser Supreme Military Academy in Cairo in 1986.

His relationship with Mr Saleh began to sour several years ago over rivalries with two of the president's sons, both commanders of key Yemeni military units. According to one account, contained in a US diplomatic cable leaked to WikiLeaks, Mr Saleh tried to kill General al Ahmar in 2009 by telling Saudi Arabian forces that a home belonging to him was a hideout for Houthi insurgents.

Mohammed Khaberi, a military affairs expert, said: "No one can forget the person who tried to kill him, but al Ahmar waited long to demand that Saleh step down. We wouldn't be surprised if Mohsen comes up with a plan to handicap Saleh and forces him to step down within days."

Source: The National

Appeals court overturns release of Gitmo detainee

Mar 30, 2011

WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal appeals court judges on Tuesday rejected what they described as a Guantanamo Bay detainee's "Forrest Gump" defense, because they found it unlikely he was an innocent who repeatedly just happened to find himself at hot spots in the war on terror.

Uthman Abdul Rahim Mohammed Uthman of Yemen won a lower court decision granting his release after more than nine years at the U.S. naval prison for terror suspects in Cuba. But a three-judge appellate panel overturned that ruling.

Uthman says he was mistaken as an al-Qaida fighter fleeing U.S. bombardment of Tora Bora when he was captured at the Afghan-Pakistani border in December 2001. The U.S. government says Uthman was one of Osama bin Laden's bodyguards and fought against anti-Taliban forces, claims he denied.

Uthman said he went to Afghanistan to teach the Quran and was doing so in Kabul on Sept. 11, 2001. He said he fled after the United States began fighting the Taliban regime, but instead of taking the more direct eastward route to Pakistan he followed his interpreter south through the mountainous region toward Tora Bora. That's where bin Laden had relocated as al-Qaida gathered for a major battle against the United States and its allies and where Uthman says he happened to meet up with some schoolmates he was later captured with.

The school they had attended was the Furqan Institute, a religious school in Yemen where al-Qaida had recruited fighters. Among those schoolmates in Uthman's group were two admitted bin Laden bodyguards and a Taliban fighter.

The court also found that Uthman traveled to Afghanistan along a route used by al-Qaida recruits and was seen at an al-Qaida guesthouse. Uthman said none of that proved he was a member of al-Qaida.

"Uthman's account piles coincidence upon coincidence upon coincidence," the appeals court wrote. "Here, as with the liable or guilty party in any civil or criminal case, it remains possible that Uthman was innocently going about his business and just happened to show up in a variety of extraordinary places — a kind of Forrest Gump in the war against al-Qaida. But Uthman's account at best strains credulity, and the far more likely explanation for the plethora of damning circumstantial evidence is that he was part of al-Qaida."

U.S. District Judge Henry Kennedy Jr. had ruled that the U.S. government did not prove that Uthman received and executed orders from al-Qaida, the so-called "command structure test." But since that ruling, the appeals court has rejected that formal standard for determining whether a detainee was part of al-Qaida and instead ordered that judges look at each detainee's actions individually to determine if he was a member of the terrorist group.

The appeals court also found Uthman's version suspicious because he claimed he paid for his travel to Afghanistan himself primarily by working summers selling food at a roadside shack. But the government argued Uthman would have had to earn more than three times the average Yemeni's annual income in only a few summers of unskilled work. The lower court found that Uthman actually received the money from a sheik, and the appeals court said the false statement was strong evidence of his guilt.

The unanimous appeals court decision was issued by two judges nominated by President George W. Bush, Brett Kavanaugh and Thomas Griffith, and by Judge Merrick Garland, a nominee of President Bill Clinton. Kavanaugh wrote the court's opinion.

According to a count by the Justice Department, judges in the Washington federal court have now ordered the release of 34 detainees and ruled that 21 are being properly held. But many of those who have won their right to release remain at Guantanamo Bay because no other country will accept them.

Occidental Cuts First-Quarter Output Forecast on Mideast Unrest, Weather

By Jim Polson - Mar 29, 2011

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY), the largest onshore crude oil producer in the continental U.S., cut its first-quarter production forecast, citing disruptions in Libya and Yemen and slower capital spending in Iraq.

Daily output of oil and natural gas will average the equivalent of 711,000 to 721,000 barrels of oil, 29,000 barrels a day less than previously expected for the quarter, Occidental, based in Los Angles, said today in slides prepared for a conference in New Orleans.

Production from Libya, Yemen and Iraq will be 15,000 barrels a day lower than expected, according to the filing. Bad weather in the U.S. and oil prices each will cause Occidental to lower output by 7,000 barrels a day, the company said.

The announcement was made before regular trading began on U.S. markets. Occidental rose 2 cents to $100.87 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

Source: Bloomberg

Protesters want Yemeni President to quit

BEIJING, March 30 (Xinhuanet) -- Thousands of protesters have gathered in Yemen calling for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down.

The demonstrators blame Saleh for mismanagement and the fatal shootings of protesters. The demonstration comes a day after Yemen's chaos deepened, when looters at a munitions factory set off an accidental explosion that killed scores of people.

The militant seizure of the factory and nearby towns amplified the fears that the situation in the country could deteriorate quickly because of the standoff between the president and an opposition coalition of youth groups, military defectors and tribal leaders.

State control diminished sharply this month as massive demonstrations spiraled in major cities and the government pulled police from many towns. Anti-government protesters in other areas pushed out police and soldiers and set up militias for self-defense.

Yemeni opposition figure wants West to back protests

By Cynthia Johnston, Reuters March 29, 2011

SANAA - Western countries should support protests seeking to remove Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to help build strong ties for the future, an opposition figure who is a rival of the current leader said on Tuesday.

Sheikh Hamid al-Ahmar, a key tribal figure who also belongs to the Islamist party Islah, said a post-Saleh Yemen would be able to control a regional arm of al-Qaida, which uses the impoverished Arabian Peninsula state as a base.

"I think that the international community, the United States and the Europeans, should stand firmly with the Yemeni nation," Ahmar told Reuters in an interview, adding he wanted them to call directly for Saleh's departure.

"They should do what they did in Egypt. We don't need what is going on in Libya. We don't need that much support. But support like what was done in Egypt would be sufficient enough to finish things," he said. "We would like them to really buy the friendship of the Yemeni nation by supporting them."

Direct talks in Yemen to broker a transition of power following weeks of pro-democracy street protests have stalled, but indirect contacts are ongoing and political sources say a deal is within reach.

Western and Saudi allies of Yemen say they fear that the stalemate could spur clashes between rival military units, especially in the capital Sanaa where the president still holds significant sway.

Washington wants to avert any chaos in Yemen, fearing it would benefit al-Qaida. Its Yemen wing claimed responsibility for a foiled 2009 attempt to blow up a plane bound for Detroit and for U.S.-bound cargo bombs sent in October 2010.

"I think Yemenis would be capable to free Yemen of terror within months," Ahmar said. "I don't think a few people would stand in front of a nation. They would stand in front of a regime which is not serious in fighting them."

VAGUE ON POLITICAL ROLE

Ahmar, a business tycoon from the same powerful tribal federation as Saleh, said he did not rule out serving in a future government if asked by the Islah party, the biggest member of an opposition coalition that also includes leftists.

Speaking in his late father's compound in Sanaa while a peacock wandered in the yard outside, he said he would be content to live as a normal person if and when Saleh leaves. But he said he would serve if called on.

"I would be happy if Islah ordered me to be in any position . . . We are looking for an institutional Yemen, where we see a stable country and no ultimate power for anyone," he said. Ahmar, who like the president hails from the north, had been increasingly critical of the president even before he threw his weight behind the protest movement. He has at times been seen as one of several potential successors to Saleh.

But Ahmar said he would support a southerner as president, repeating an assertion he has made before. He said this would help unify a fractious country where analysts say Saleh's fall could precede a new bid for secession of the south.

Political sources say talks on a transition deal have focused on potentially transforming Yemen's government into a parliamentary system that could also have a strong prime minister, whom the opposition wants to choose.

Ahmar said he saw the chance of reaching a political deal in which Saleh would leave power at around 50 per cent, saying a deal was nearly reached on Saturday before direct talks stopped. He said people would press on with peaceful protests.

"It would continue what happened in Egypt, what happened in Tunisia . . . People are going away from him. His own people. It will continue. He will find himself alone very soon," he said.

"You will find more people in the streets and you will find fewer people standing with him . . . We are patient, we will continue. We think we will win, God willing."