Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Saleh’s political problems threaten hunt for U.S.-born radical cleric Aulaqi

By Sudarsan Raghavan

ADEN, March 22, 2011- Ten months ago, a tribal leader spotted Anwar al-Aulaqi, the Yemeni American cleric whom U.S. officials consider a top operative of the world’s most worrisome terrorist group.

“He was at a funeral,” said Saleh Ali al-Duriya, who lives a 15-minute drive away from Aulaqi’s tribal village.

Three months ago, Aulaqi was “walking freely” in Ataq, the capital of a remote southeastern province, said Mohsin Bin Farid, his uncle and an opposition leader. “So many people saw him,” he said.

For months, the United States has urged Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to capture Aulaqi, a 39-year-old born in New Mexico who has been implicated in several attacks on U.S. soil. In April, the Obama administration authorized his targeted killing.

Even before the outbreak of a popular uprising that threatens to topple Saleh’s government, Yemen’s efforts to capture Aulaqi were plagued by limited resources and lack of governmental authority in the southern part of the country, where he is suspected to be hiding. But now, with the government struggling for its survival, Yemeni officials say the quest to find Aulaqi has become even less of a priority, and the chances of one of the world’s most wanted men continuing to escape capture are even greater.

In recent days, Saleh’s hold on power has appeared increasingly fragile as top generals and diplomats have defected. He has also lost the support of key tribes, which are resentful of a government they view as corrupt, nepotistic and incapable of providing even basic services.

With no clear plan for transitioning power should Saleh fall, there is a risk of greater instability in Yemen — which Aulaqi and his allies could seek to exploit. Even if Saleh survives, his government’s capacity to confront Aulaqi and other terrorism suspects would probably be severely constrained.

“We have to deal with these political problems first. Finding Aulaqi is not on anyone’s mind,” said a senior ruling party official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the matter is sensitive, especially to the United States, which considers Saleh a vital counterterrorism ally.

Aulaqi, who lived in Virginia and was the imam of a mosque in Falls Church, left the United States in 2002. He was detained in Yemen in 2006 at the request of the United States but was released later that year.

He is thought to have taken up residence in Yemen’s restive south and has since been linked to the 2009 shootings in Fort Hood, Tex., and the failed plot to blow up a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas Day the same year. U.S. officials allege that Aulaqi had graduated from inspiring attacks to orchestrating them as a top operative in al-Qaeda’s Yemen branch, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

Since then, Aulaqi has continued rising to the upper echelons of the group. In November, AQAP asserted responsibility for a plot in which parcel bombs ended up on cargo planes bound for the United States. Aulaqi is thought to have played a role in creating Inspire, an English-language magazine published by the terrorist group that is intended to recruit Westerners.

Aulaqi’s lectures in English on Islamic scripture also engage a large following online. In May, a 21-year-old British student told police that she stabbed a lawmaker after watching Aulaqi’s videos.

Last month, Michael Leiter, the U.S. official in charge of analyzing terrorism threats, told a congressional committee that Aulaqi and AQAP probably posed “the most significant risk to the U.S. homeland.”

“Anwar Aulaqi is creating a new al-Qaeda,” said Said Obaid, a Yemeni analyst who has written a book about AQAP. “They’ve become stronger since he joined them.”

Unsuccessful efforts

Facing heightened U.S. pressure after the parcel-bomb plot, a Yemeni judge on Nov. 6 ordered the “forcible arrest” of Aulaqi, dead or alive, for failure to appear at a trial over accusations that he inspired a Yemeni man to kill a French employee of an oil company. Two days later, Aulaqi released a video calling on his followers to kill Americans.

In January, a Yemeni court sentenced him in absentia to 10 years in prison on charges of incitement to kill foreigners. Last month, Aulaqi released an audiotape in support of a jailed Yemeni journalist who had close contacts with AQAP leaders.

Three months ago, security forces enlisted the help of tribes in the southern province of Shabwa to find Aulaqi, according to tribal leaders. The leaders said they were given large sums of money and ammunition to search about 180 square miles, a mission that was expected to last days. After four hours, the tribesmen declared that Aulaqi was not there.

“In Shabwa, if he goes to any tribe, they have him as a guest. And in our culture, it is a shame to tell any guest to go away,” said Bin Farid, Aulaqi’s uncle. “But they are not with him in his beliefs. Because there is no government there, everyone can run free.”

‘It will be very difficult’

In interviews, some southern tribal leaders said they viewed Aulaqi as a heroic figure, an innocent preacher fighting against a great power, the United States. They rejected allegations that he is an al-Qaeda leader.

The growing protest movement in Yemen, along with a series of defections from the ruling party, is adding pressure on Saleh. Even before the uprising began last month, the government was dealing with a simmering rebellion in the north, a secessionist movement in the south and immense poverty.

Now, Saleh is fighting for his political survival. With large swaths of the country under tribal control, he needs to preserve his alliances with tribes — including with the Aulaqi tribe, one of Yemen’s strongest — and prevent them from joining the burgeoning opposition movement.

“Even if they want to get him, it will be very difficult,” said Nasser al-Aulaqi, the radical cleric’s father. “There’s no way for the Yemeni government to send troops to find him.”

Some ruling party officials noted that the United States has yet to find Osama bin Laden or his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, nearly a decade after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. The United States, they say, needs to work more closely with local leaders in Yemen to help their areas develop economically.

“The best thing for the U.S. and international community is not to fall into the trap of score-settling,” said Mohammed Abu Loham, a top ruling party official and an influential tribal leader. “The last thing they need is to create more enemies.”

Other ruling party officials suggested that it was the responsibility of the United States to find Aulaqi and said that they have no idea where he is.

“The Americans know better than us where he is. They have all the technology,” said Sultan al-Barkani, a senior ruling party official. “If it’s so easy for us to catch him, why did we charge him in absentia for a crime?”

Aulaqi’s father insisted that his son is not an al-Qaeda leader. But he said the hunt has made his son even more famous and capable of inspiring future terrorists.

“Anwar was not well known in the Middle East or even in Yemen,” the elder Aulaqi said. “Now he is known from North Africa to every corner of the Arab world. All the young Muslim people love Anwar.”

Today, Aulaqi is protected not only in Yemen’s south. Tribal leaders in northern areas, where Saleh has long built support through a system of patronage, say they, too, would protect the cleric.

“Sheik Anwar is an intelligent man. He knows how to apply pressure on America,” said Abdullah al-Juaili, a tribal leader in the northwestern city of Al-Jawf. “I don’t believe he is al-Qaeda. If he comes to Al-Jawf, no one will touch him.”

Source: Washington Post

Yemen urges foreign media maximum accuracy while covering Yemen

SANA'A, March 22 (Saba) – Yemen on Tuesday urged foreign media to exercise maximum accuracy as to what they report and to be professional while covering the situation in Yemen.

A source at the Information Ministry also stressed the importance of reporting the facts as they are and to avoid distorting them.

The source told Saba:" the ministry will regrettably withdraw the license of any correspondent for foreign outlets found abusing his profession".

Yemen is a democratic country, which is open to different opinions and committed to freedom of the press providing media never harms the national security and stability, the source said, warning media of incitement to violence and chaos or distorting the facts.

US worries Yemen unrest could help Al-Qaeda

MOSCOW, Mar 22, 2011 (AFP) - US Defence Secretary Robert Gates on Tuesday voiced concern over unrest in Yemen, saying it could divert attention from the country's fight against Al-Qaeda militants.

But the Pentagon chief declined to discuss the political fate of Yemen's embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was facing the threat of a military coup.

Asked if the United States still supported Saleh, Gates said he would not comment on "internal affairs in Yemen".

"We are obviously concerned about instability in Yemen," Gates told reporters travelling with him during a visit to Moscow, where he held talks with Russian leaders.

"We consider Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is largely located in Yemen, to be perhaps the most dangerous of all the franchises of Al-Qaeda right now," he said.

"Instability and diversion of attention from dealing with AQAP is certainly my primary concern about the situation," he said.

Washington has viewed Saleh as a crucial ally in efforts to combat Al-Qaeda militants in Yemen, dramatically increasing military assistance in recent years while American special forces work with Yemeni troops.

In the face of mass protests since January, Saleh offered to resign by January but the opposition insisted on Tuesday he step down immediately.

With tanks deployed outside key installations in the capital, Saleh warned earlier that a coup attempt in Yemen could spark civil war.

Before unrest shook the region, US officials reportedly were looking at stepping up drone bombing raids against Al-Qaeda figures in Yemen, a tactic widely used against militants in Pakistan.

Source: AFP

Yemen: Who’s with the President?

By Dexter Filkins

Mar 22, 2011- President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen gave a defiant speech Tuesday, promising that any attempt to push him from office would lead to civil war. Just how many Yemenis were actually paying attention to him was another matter.

A wave of defections this week from Saleh’s government, including General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, the man regarded as the country’s most important military commander, have prompted many Yemenis to conclude that Saleh’s departure, one way or another, is now a matter of time. “I think the end is clear to everyone now,” Mohammed Abulahoum, a senior leader of the Baqil tribe—one of the country’s largest—and a former confidant of the President, said. “Either they will give him a good exit strategy or he will give them a fight.” The big question Tuesday was which it would be.

After the stunning defection on Monday of al-Ahmar, the chief of the military forces in Yemen’s northwest, the center of gravity seemed to shift away from the presidential palace and to the protesters in the streets. For weeks, the protesters who have gathered at Sana’a University have been watched by police and soldiers. Some of those soldiers have shot and beaten the protesters.

On Tuesday, the police and soldiers were gone. In their place were checkpoints manned by al-Ahmar’s First Armored Division. Their orders were to protect the protesters from harm—that is, harm coming from anyone, even other elements of the Yemeni military.

General al-Ahmar, an uneasy partner of Saleh for thirty years, announced his mutiny following the massacre last Friday of at least fifty-two demonstrators. At least two hundred were wounded. The survivors said they were fired on by snipers in masks and by uniformed members of the Yemeni security services. Saleh denied that he ordered the attacks, but few Yemenis appear to believe him. The senior officials defecting from Saleh’s government are making their opinions known by leaving.

In his speech Tuesday, Saleh was almost entirely aggressive. He vowed not to be forced from office by anyone in the Yemeni military. He accused the protesters of being directed by “foreign agendas.” And he said the Yemeni opposition leaders, if given power, would turn on each other and send the country into anarchy. The overriding impression that Saleh conveyed is that he is ready for a fight.

“Those who want to reach power through a coup will be unable,” Saleh said. “This is impossible. The scenario will turn into a civil war.” To drive that point home, perhaps, six tanks took up positions around the presidential palace.

So the battle lines have been drawn. But it’s not clear just how many people are standing on the President’s side. Fewer and fewer Yemenis appear to be—whether Saleh knows it or not.

“When someone has been in power for thirty-three years,” Abulahoum said, “they begin to believe that they know everything better than everyone else.”

Source: The New Yorker

Saudis prepare to abandon troublesome Yemen

By Abeer Allam in Riyadh and Roula Khalaf in London

March 22 2011

Yemen’s president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, has turned to neighbour Saudi Arabia to mediate an end to a crisis that he himself has warned could turn into a “civil war” now that pivotal members of the military have defected.

But, if the strongman who has ruled over Yemen for 32 years is hoping for Saudi backing, analysts say he is likely to be disappointed.

Saudi Arabia would like to see a quick and smooth transition of power in Yemen, where Mr Saleh has been clinging to power in spite of weeks of protests and the dramatic narrowing of his support base, say analysts close to the government in Riyadh. And the kingdom is now concerned that the situation could devolve into a Libyan scenario in which Mr Saleh uses his presidential guards against the people and the army, transforming a revolt against the regime into a civil war.

“For Saudi Arabia, the end results for any mediation will be to guarantee stability and a smooth transition of power,’’ says Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi analyst. “The kingdom will not fight for Saleh. ... We have very bad experiences with him. The man’s survival makes no difference.”

While Riyadh and its Gulf neighbours have intervened on the side of Bahrain’s ruling family, which has launched a crackdown against a Shia uprising, the attitude towards Yemen is shifting to the support of the revolt against Mr Saleh.

The Saudi-backed al-Arabiya channel, which had played down the Bahrain revolt, on Tuesday used the headline “Change in Yemen,’’ instead of “Turmoil in Yemen,’’ to describe the protests.

“The situation has escalated and there is a consensus among Yemeni protesters and army, even his own tribe, to oust Saleh,’’ said Abdullah al-Askar, deputy chairman in the foreign affairs committee of the Shura Council, the con­sultative body in Saudi Arabia.

“In light of that, Saudi Arabia would not interfere to impose Saleh on his people. If it was requested to mediate, then it would be to facilitate a peaceful exit to save his face.’’

Saudi Arabia is one of the outside powers with the greatest influence in Yemen, a country that has troubled Riyadh policymakers, not least because it has been a haven for extremists driven out by the Saudi campaign against al-Qaeda.

Saudi security officials complain of an influx of al-Qaeda militants, explosives, illegal immigrants and drugs through the 1,800km long border with Yemen and consider the Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula as a main threat to the kingdom.

Despite repeated tensions with Mr Saleh, including his 1990 support for Iraq’s Saddam Hussein after his invasion of Kuwait, Riyadh has poured billions of dollars into impoverished Yemen and joined in Mr Saleh’s military campaign against the Houthi rebels in the north of Yemen in late 2009.

But the kingdom has also been increasingly frustrated by Mr Saleh.

Prince Mohammed bin Naif, Saudi Arabia’s deputy interior minister, told US diplomats in 2009 that Yemen had become a “dangerous failed state” and that cash assistance to the government tended to end up in Swiss bank accounts, according to leaked diplomatic cables.

Western analysts say Riyadh has also maintained close ties with Yemeni tribes, some of whom are also on Saudi payroll, as well as with army chiefs.

Yemen’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Mohammed al-Ahwal, sided with the protesters on Monday, demanding the ousting of Mr Saleh.

The Saudi-owned newspaper Asharq al Awsat reported that Abu Bakr al-Qarbi, Yemeni foreign minister, arrived in Riyadh on Monday with a message from Mr Saleh.

Osama Nogali, Saudi foreign ministry spokesman, stressed on Tuesday that it was the six-nation Gulf Co-operation Council that was mediating in the Yemen ­crisis.

“The kingdom is keen on consultations between all parties within the GCC frame and will not act unilaterally. Yemen is the GCC’s immediate neighbour and stability in Yemen is very important to the stability of the Arabian Peninsula.’’

Analysts said Prince Naif had stepped in to tackle the Yemen file, which has been traditionally handled by the ailing Crown Prince Sultan.

Source: Financial Time